HC Deb 16 November 1992 vol 214 cc28-9W
Mr. Milburn

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will provide a table comparing Treasury economic forecasts made in(a) the "Financial Statement and Budget Report" and (b) the "Autumn Statement" for each of the last four years with the actual economic outturn in terms of growth in (i) gross domestic product, (ii) balance of payments and (iii) unemployment.

Mr. Portillo

[holding answer 11 November 1992]: The "Financial Statement and Budget Report" and the "Autumn Statement" do not contain forecasts of unemployment. The published balance of payments forecasts are in current prices rather than growth rates. The table compares calendar year forecasts of growth in gross domestic product, and of the balance of payments current account, with outturns.

Forecasts of GDP and the balance of payments current account
Year for which forecast was made
GDP, percentage changes on a year earlier 1988 1989 1990 1991
FSBR 1988 3.00 — — —
Autumn Statement 1988 4.50 3.00 — —
FSBR 1989 — 2.50 — —
Autumn Statement 1989 — 2.00 1.25 —
FSBR 1990 — — 1.00 —
Autumn Statement 1990 — — 1.00 0.50
FSBR 1991 — — — -2.00
Autumn Statement 1991 — — — -2.00
Outturn 4.50 2.00 0.75 -2.50
Forecasts of GDP and the balance of payments current account
Year for which forecast was made
Current account balance £ billion 1988 1989 1990 1991
FSBR 1988 -4.00 — — —
Autumn Statement 1988 -13.00 -11.00 — —
FSBR 1989 — -14.50 — —
Autumn Statement 1989 — -20.00 -15.00 —
FSBR 1990 — — -15.00 —
Autumn Statement 1990 — — -15.50 -11.00
FSBR 1991 — — — -6.00
Autumn Statement 1991 — — — -6.50
Outturn -16.25 -21.75 -17.00 -6.25

Autumn statement and FSBR forecasts
PSBR
£ billion
Year for which forecasts made
1987–88 1988–89 1989–90 1990–91 1991–92 1992–93
FSBR 1987 3.9 — — — — —
Autumn Statement 1987 1.0 — — — — —
FSBR 1988 — -3.2 — — — —
Autumn Statement 1988 — -9.8 — — — —
FSBR 1989 — — -13.8 — — —
Autumn Statement 1989 — — -12.6 — — —
FSBR 1990 — — — -6.9 — —
Autumn Statement 1990 — — — -3.0 — —
FSBR 1991 — — — — 7.9 —
Autumn Statement 1991 — — — — 10.5 —
FSBR 1992 — — — — — 28.1
Outturn -3.4 -14.7 -7.9 -0.5 13.7 n/a

General government expenditure
£ billion
Year for which forecasts made
1987–88 1988–89 1989–90 1990–91 1991–92 1992–93
FSBR 1987 173.5 — — — — —
Autumn Statement 1987 172.8 — — — — —
FSBR 1988 — 182.9 — — — —
Autumn Statement 1988 — 180.9 — — — —
FSBR 1989 — — 194.3 — — —
Autumn Statement 1989 — — 196.3 — — —
FSBR 1990 — — — 212.7 — —
Autumn Statement 1990 — — — 215.7 — —
FSBR 1991 — — — — 234.8 —
Autumn Statement 1991 — — — — 236.1 —
FSBR 1992 — — — — — 258.5
Outturn 173.2 179.7 200.8 217.4 235.9 n/a

RPI fourth quarter, percentage changes on a year earlier
Year for which forecasts made
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
FSBR 1987 4.00 — — — — —
Autumn Statement 1987 4.00 4.50 — — — —
FSBR 1988 — 4.00 — — — —
Autumn Statement 1988 — 6.25 5.00 — — —
FSBR 1989 — — 5.50 — — —
Autumn Statement 1989 — — 7.50 5.75 — —
FSBR 1990 — — — 7.25 — —
Autumn Statement 1990 — — — 10.25 5.50 —
FSBR 1991 — — — — 4.00 —
Autumn Statement 1991 — — — — 4.00 4.00