§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what methods she is using to project the numbers of persons likely to require residential or nursing home care after April 1993; and what conclusions she has reached.
§ Mr. YeoWe currently estimate that about 110,000 people annually would have permanently entered independent residential care or nursing homes if the system of higher levels of income support had continued. This figure has regard to the growth in numbers under the present system and turnover rates estimated from the results of recent surveys about the characteristics of people living in residential care and nursing homes, including length of stay. We shall keep this estimate under review as further information becomes available. All such estimates have a margin of error. The actual number of people admitted to residential care and nursing homes under local authority auspices from April 1993 will depend on an assessment by authorities of their care needs.