HC Deb 02 February 1990 vol 166 cc419-20W
Mr. Key

To ask the Secretary of State for Health when he intends to publish updated short-term predictions of HIV infection and AIDS in England and Wales; and if he will make a statement.

Mrs. Virginia Bottomley

The report of a working group, "Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome in England and Wales to end 1993: Projections Using data to end September 1989" has today been published by the public health laboratory service and a copy has been placed in the Library.

The report concludes that the predicted incidence of AIDS in homosexual men is lower than previously calculated, and that as a result of behavioural change, the probable number of this group infected with HIV is also lower than previously estimated. But the potential for widespread dissemination of HIV still remains, particularly amongst heterosexuals and injecting drug users. The range of future predictions for these groups is wide. This is because the predictions for the continued rate of spread of the epidemic depend on the extent to which individuals change their behaviour, and this is difficult to foresee.

We are at a critical stage in the HIV epidemic, and behavioural change amongst heterosexuals and injecting drug users will be crucial in keeping down the incidence of HIV infection. It is also essential that behavioural changes amongst homosexual men are sustained and reinforced in the future.

We must not allow ourselves to become complacent, or to relax our guard. This report reinforces the messages which we have been giving for some time: if the spread of HIV goes unchecked the potential outcome could be devastating.. if people take sensible precautions, and avoid high risk activities, the virus has less opportunity for spreading.. we must continue the work to increase awareness about the serious risks of heterosexual transmission..

The work being carried out by the Health Education Authority and by district health authorities and other local agencies to educate and inform people is therefore vital, so that these behavioural changes take place before it is too late.

We are grateful to Professor Day and members of the working group for their work in preparing revised predictions of HIV infection and AIDS in England and Wales which updates the predictions made by Sir David Cox, published in November 1988.