§ Sir Geoffrey Johnson SmithTo ask the Secretary of State for Defence when, following his announcement on 20 October 1987, he intends to publish the findings of the internal inquiry conducted by the director general of the Meteorological Office into the weather forecasts that the Meteorological Office made in the period preceding the storms of Thursday 15 and Friday 16 October 1987 over southern England; when he intends to publish the report196W prepared by Sir Peter Swinnerton-Dyer FRS, and Professor Robert Pearce; and whether he will make a statement.
§ Mr. George YoungerSir Peter Swinnerton-Dyer and Professor Pearce presented their report in January. They considered the findings of the internal inquiry by the director general.
Their report found that the lack of adequate public warning occurred because uncertainty about atmospheric conditions in the Biscay area led to a lack of agreement between computer forecasts and, although no individual was seriously to blame for this, because the forecasters did not recognise that the computer forecasts would underestimate the speed of wind over Britain.
Their report recommends changes in training forecasters, the use of more senior staff for forecasting, enhanced computer and associated facilities, and changes in menthods of working (including the way in which weather information is presented by the media).
In saying all this, their report endorses the findings and recommendations of the director general's report which are concerned in particular with the need for more and better observations, for developments in the computer models and for a review of the procedures for handling severe weather warnings to the emergency authorities.
I have accepted all the recommendations of both reports, and where further action is required, it will be taken as soon as possible.
Copies of both reports are being published; and copies have been placed in the Library of the House.