§ Mr. Ernie Rossasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what estimate he has made of the numerical and percentage change in those aged 75 years and over in the population in Dundee, Tayside and Scotland, respectively, by 1990; and if he will allocate additional resources to health boards in consequence of these changes.
§ Mr. John MacKayThe estimated changes in the population aged 75 and over between 1981 and 1990 are as follows:
470W
1981 *1990 Increase Numbers Numbers Numbers Percentage Dundee 11,079 12,640 1,561 14.1 Tayside 25,040 27,883 2,843 11.4 Scotland 272,461 305,712 33,251 12.2 * 1979 based estimate.
Little change in the total population is expected.
The Government have not published financial plans to 1990. Allocations to health boards are decided from year to year in the light of both the total resources available and the needs of the service. In 1983–84, my right hon. Friend has provided over 6 per cent. more cash for hospital and community health services. After allowance for forecast inflation this should permit sufficient expansion nationally to meet new demands from both demographic changes and more advanced medical techniques. This sure will be distributed to boards in accordance with the SHARE arrangements in which population and population structure have a major role. The same principles can be expected to apply in future years.
§ Mr. Ernie Rossasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what evaluation he has made of the numbers of geriatric beds required in both Tayside health board and Scotland using the criteria laid down in the report on Scottish health authorities' priorities for the 1980s; and how these compare with the number presently provided.
§ Mr. John MacKayThe information requested is as follows:
Number of beds required Average staffed required beds Tayside health board 1,004 895 Scotland 10,900 10,658 The number of beds required is based on the ratio of 40 beds per 1,000 population aged 75 or over recommended in the SHAPE report. The population figures used are the estimates for 30 June 1981, incorporating the results of the 1981 census. Average staffed beds are for the year to 30 September 1981.