§ Mr. Parryasked the Secretary of State for the Home Department whether, in his calculations about the probable effects of a nuclear war, he assumes that Merseyside would be a prime target for attack; and what are his most recent estimates of the likely number of deaths which would occur in Merseyside.
§ Mr. HurdIt is impossible to predict with any certainty the size of a nuclear attack, the targets it would include, or its effects. They would depend upon the political and strategic intentions of an enemy at the time. There is always the possibility that any large city might be a target. The Government's policy of deterrence aims to prevent an attack of any sort happening, and we believe it to be unlikely.
We do not make detailed estimates of the numbers who might be killed in an attack. This would depend upon many unforeseeable matters such as the number and size of weapons, whether they were detonated in the air or at ground level, upon weather conditions, and upon the extent to which the public had followed advice on protective precautions. It could also depend on the extent to which local authorities had carried out the obligations required by the civil defence regulations.