§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will give figures for the rate of growth of (a) total service employment, (b) public service employment and (c) private service employment in Scotland in each of the last five years.
§ Mr. Allan StewartAvailable estimates of rates of growth in employment in Scotland are set out in the136W following table, expressed as percentage changes from the previous year. Estimates for the remainder of the public sector and for private services are not available.
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Service Sector* + 2.8 + 1.7 - 0.9 + 0.3 + 0.4 Civil Servants † 0.0 - 1.7 - 0.9 - 1.9 - 2.8 Local Government employees‡ + 3.7 + 1.4 -2.1 -0.9 -0.5 NHS Staff║ + 1.9 + 1.6 + 3.1 + 1.4 + 0.2 * The service sector is defined here as orders XXII to XXVII of the 1968 standard industrial classification; the 1982 and 1983 estimates take account of supplementary estimates and are provisional; the changes are based on June estimates. † The changes are based on January estimates. They include some employment outside the service sector. ‡ The changes are based on June estimates, and have been adjusted to take account of certain employees first counted in June 1981 The 1983 estimate is provisional. The estimates include some employment—for example, in construction and water—outside the service sector. ║The changes are based on September estimates. Those for 1979 to 1982 include medical and dental staff, but the 1983 change does not, and is provisional.
§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what percentage of service employment in Scotland is in (a)the public sector, (b) the private sector and (c) exportable service areas.
§ Mr. Allan StewartEstimates are not available in the form requested. But civil servants are estimated to constitute about 5 per cent. local government employees about 24 per cent. and National Health Service staff about 12 per cent. of employees in employment in the service sector—Orders XXII-XXVII of the 1968 SIC. These estimates are based on employment estimates relating to various dates in 1983; the Civil Service and local authority estimates include an element of employment outside the service sector.
§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will publish a table showing for each of the last eight years the numbers employed in oil-related construction projects, excluding platform construction, in Scotland.
§ Mr. Allan StewartThe information requested is as follows:
Numbers 1976 6,200 1977 4,200 1978 6,600 1979 8,200 1980 7,700 1981 10,800 1982 4,800 1983 3,658 The numbers are mid-year estimates in each case, based mainly on the MSC survey returns of companies temporarily involved in oil-related construction projects.
§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will give figures for estimated employment generated in Scotland due to the multiplier effects of increased consumption resulting from oil and oil-related activity for each of the last eight years; and if he will provide details of the basis for such estimations.
§ Mr. Allan StewartThe available information relates to employment connected with North sea oil and gas activites: the estimates of employment generated in 137W Scotland over the last eight years by expenditure by those in oil-related jobs — local multiplier effects — are as follows:
Numbers 1976 8,930–17,860 1977 8,830–17,650 1978 10,230–20,460 1979 12,150–24,220 1980 12,950–25,820 1981 14,200–28,350 1982 14,600–29,200 1983 15,400–30,750 The figures refer to June of the relevant years. To derive the estimates a consumption multiplier in the range of 1.2 to 1.4 is applied to the total of employment in (a) wholly oil-related firms (b) partly oil-related firms and (c) oil-related constructon projects. The range for the multiplier is in line with that derived from several sources including, for example, the 1973 Scottish input-output study.
§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland whether he will publish a table showing such information
Industrial Breakdown Thousands 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Exploration, development and production of oil and gas 4.3 4.7 8.1 10.8 12.3 14.2 16.8 18.2 Manufacturing and construction 14.8 12.3 11.5 15.8 16.1 20.3 25.4 26.1 Services 6.8 8.9 9.7 15.2 18.0 15.1 16.0 19.0 TOTAL 25.9 25.9 29.4 41.8 46.3 49.6 58.3 63.3 * The figures in these years related to companies identified by MSC at that time. They do not accord with the totals for the years shown above since the time series data has been amended to allow for the effects of undercounting identified in 1979. The numbers employed in firms partly involved in North sea oil and gas related activity in Scotland which are as follows were identified in two survey carried out in 1976 and 1978 by the Scottish Office.
(b) Employment in companies partly involved in North sea oil work 1976 1978 Manufacturing 10,200 8,150 Non-manufacturing 1,150 2,400 TOTAL 11,350 10,550
§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will publish a table showing the percentage of total service sector employment in Scotland in (a) the health sector, (b) education, (c) distributive trades, (d) public administration, (e) transport and communications and (f) insurance and banking.
§ Mr. Allan StewartThe estimated percentage of service sector employment— Orders XXII-XXVII— in Scotland at September 1981 are shown in the following table:
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Percentages (a) Medical and dental services 13 (b) Educational services 13 as he has for each of the last eight years, by industrial classification, of (a) the numbers employed in firms wholly involved in oil and oil-related activity and (b) the numbers employed in oil-related activity in firms partly involved in oil and oil-related activity in Scotland.
§ Mr. Allan StewartThe available information relates to employment connected with North sea oil. Employment in companies wholly related to North sea oil and gas activity is as follow:
(a) Time Series June Thousands 1976 27.1 1977 28.6 1978 34.0 1979 41.8 1980 46.3 1981 50.0 1982 58.3 1983 63.3 Source: Manpower Services Commission and Industry Department for Scotland.
Percentages (c) Distributive trades 20 (d) Public administration and defence 12 (e) Transport and communication 10 (f) Insurance banking and bill discounting 4 Note: These estimates are based on the 1968 standard industrial classification.
§ Mr.Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will publish a table giving figures on a comparable basis to his estimates of jobs arising from North sea oil and gas, Official Report, 29 November, c. 777, for jobs in Scotland directly and indirectly attributable to (a) coal mining, (b) iron and steel, (c) shipbuilding and shiprepairing, (d) electronics, (e) food and drink, (f) vehicle manufacture, (g) textiles and (h) special employment measures.
§ Mr. Allan StewartEstimates of employment indirectly attributable to these industries and to special measures are not available. But the provisional estimates of the numbers of employees in employment at September 1981 in the industries are given in the following table. The number of people assisted by special employment and training measures in Scotland was 84,000 at October 1983. Some indication of the range of indirect effects for different industrial groupings is given in the second report from the Committee on Scottish Affairs, Session 1979–80, "Inward Investment", Volume 2, page 349.
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Industry Employees in employment ('000) (a) Coal mining 22 (b) Iron and steel 20 (c) Shipbuilding and marine engineering 34 (d) Electronics 37 (e) Food and drink 78 (f) Vehicles 26 (g) Textiles 41 Note:The estimates for electronics are based on mlhs 354 and 363–367 of the 1968 standard industrial classification; those for iron and steel are based on mlhs 311–313.
§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will give a statistical breakdown of the componentsincluded in his estimate of 100,000 jobs in Scotland, Official Report, 29 November, c. 777, arising from North sea oil and gas, indicating which components are (a) estimates, (b) based on sample surveys and (c) an actual figure; and where actual figures are not used, if he will give full details of the method of computation used to derive the estimate.
§ Mr. Allan StewartThe estimate of 100,000 jobs in Scotland arising from North sea oil and gas is the midpoint of an estimated range of employment in June 1983 derived as follows:
Number (a) Employment in wholly oil-related firms 63,292 (b) Employment in partly oil-related firms 10,000 (c) Employment in short term oil-related construction projects 3,658 (d) Employment due to multiplier effects 15,400 to 30,750 TOTAL 92,300 to 107,650 The figure for category (a) comes from the June 1983 MSC survey of oil-related employment in Scotland. The figure for category (b) is an estimate based on surveys carried out by the Scottish Office in 1976 and 1978. The figure in category (c) is an estimate based on the MSC survey supplemented by information supplied by the companies involved. The multiplier effects—category (d)—reflect jobs generated by expenditure by those in the other three categories on the basis of a range of 1.2 to 1.4.
§ Mr. Foulkesasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what proportion of the 100,000 jobs in Scotland, referred to in his speech of 29 November, Official Report, c. 777,
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Cancer registrations by age and area of residence; numbers and rates/100,000 0 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85+ All ages 1981 Ayrshire and Arran HB Number 59 80 173 336 555 350 80 1,633 Rate/100,000 30.76 173.16 402.33 827.59 1,651.79 2,187.50 2,758.62 436.51 West of Scotland Number 500 539 1,338 2,752 4,207 2,668 643 12,647 Rate/100,000 33.87 163.58 409.80 902.59 1,745.64 2,320.00 2,883.41 449.18 Scotland Number 1,049 1,028 2,431 4,884 7,724 5,272 1,321 23,709 Rate/100,000 170.79 413.37 883.02 1,700.59 2,334.81 2,859.31 460.41 39.14 1980 Scotland Number 1,039 1,081 2,380 5,002 7,52 5,203 1,302 23,535 Rate/100,000 38.40 181.96 408.13 914.74 1,646.74 2,340.60 2,952.18 456.70 accredited to North sea oil and gas activity are directly or indirectly attributable to ail-related work at the Scott Lithgow yard.
§ Mr. Allan StewartThe answers I have given today to other questions from the hon. Member explain the basis of the figures quoted by my right hon. Friend. The surveys from which the estimates of employment in those firms —such as Scott Lithgow—partly involved in North sea oil-related work are derived are not based on a firm by firm examination; and it is not therefore possible to assess the proportion attributable to Scott Lithgow.