§ Mr. Tim Smithasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer how the Government's autumn forecasts since 1979 of output and inflation in the following year have compared with the outturn or latest estimate.
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§ Mr. LawsonIndustry Act forecasts for increases in GDP and the retail prices index published each autumn since 1979, together with the latest estimates or outturn figures, are given in the following tables. No adjustments have been made for the effects of subsequent policy measures.
Table 1: GDP—Forecast and Outturn Percentage changes on previous year (Published in) For year Forecast* Outturn* at 1980 prices (Autumn 1979) 1980 -2 -2½ (Autumn 1980) 1981 -1½ -1½ (Autumn 1981) 1982 1 2 (Autumn 1982) 1983 -1½ †3 * Data for GDP are on the "average measure" at factor cost. † Projection in the 1983 autumn statement.
Table 2: RP1—Forecast and Outturn Percentage changes on corresponding quarter a year earlier (Published in) For fourth quarter of Forecast Outturn (Autumn 1979) 1980 14 15½ (Autumn 1980) 1981 11 12 (Autumn 1981) 1982 10 6 (Autumn 1982) 1983 5 *5 * Projection in the 1983 autumn statement. Increase in the RPI in the 12 months of October 1983 was 5 per cent.