§ Mrs. Renée Shortasked the Secretary of State for the Home Department (1) what part the parole prediction score system plays in deciding on individual applications for paroles;
(2) which year's reconviction data is being used to calculate the parole prediction score system; if he will list the variables involved; what plans he has to update this data; if he is satisfied that it is relevant to use these variables and data today; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. MayhewThe system provides for a second opinion by reference to the Parole Board in cases where a prisoner has been found unsuitable for parole by the local review committee but nevertheless has sufficient502W favourable characteristics to produce a low statistical probability of reconviction within two years of release from prison.
A detailed account of the development of this index is given in chapter 2 of Home Office research study No. 38 "Parole in England and Wales" published in 1977 by HMSO. The research has not since been repeated, but we have no reason to doubt the reliability of the present reconviction prediction calculations, which has been confirmed by other more recently published work, for their limited application in respect of parole.