§ Mr. Higginsasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will publish estimates of the economic effects of the amendments carried in the Committee of the Whole House on the Finance Bill which were produced for him with the aid of the Treasury model.
§ Mr. HealeyOn the assumptions of a floating exchange rate, unchanged money supply—and variable interest rates—earnings which respond to prices and the level of activity, and no substantial adverse effects in financial markets, the effects of the amendments carried in the Committee of the whole House on the Finance Bill are estimated as follows:
(a) the RPI to be 0.1 per cent. higher than it would otherwise have been in the second quarter of 1979, and 0.2 per cent. higher in the first quarter of 1980;
656Wneed to earn gross in order to achieve a net earned income of £115 a week when he is married with (a) no children, (b) two children, (c) five children and (d) 10 children.
§ Mr. Robert SheldonThe figures are are follows:—
(b) GDP to be 0.1 per cent. higher than it would otherwise have been in the second quarter of 1979, and 0.2 per cent. higher in the first quarter of 1980;
(c) unemployment to be 10,000 lower than it would otherwise have been in the second quarter of 1979;
(d) the current account of the balance of payments to be £60 million worse than it would otherwise have been in the 1978–79 financial year, and £210 million worse in the 1978–79 financial year;
(e) the PSBR to be £440 million higher than it would otherwise have been in the 1978–79 financial year;
(f) long and short interest rates to be ¼per cent. higher than they would otherwise have been from the last quarter of 1978.
These estimates are subject to a wide margin of error. As they are derived from the Treasury model, they can be no more reliable than the relationships in the model.