HC Deb 19 November 1974 vol 881 cc352-4W
Mr. Marks

asked the Secretary of State for Education and Science whether he will publish his latest projections of school population in England and Wales for 1957–1968; how these compare with the projections of school population in Command Paper 5174; and how many teachers in maintained schools, including nursery schools, would be needed from 1981 to 1986 on those projections to secure that period (a) the staffing standard set by Command Paper No. 5174 for 1981, and (b) the pupil-teacher ratio specified in the ninth report of the former National Advisory Council on the Training and Supply of Teachers as being necessary to eliminate classes of over 30.

Mr. Prentice

The information is given below. The school population in January 1974 was 8,942,000 and the number of full-time equivalent qualified teachers in March 1974, 426,000. The number of teachers needed to maintain 1974–75 staffing standards in 1981 and 1986 would be 453,000 and 417,000 respectively. The figures given assume that the annual number of births which has been falling since 1964 will rise after 1975.

MAINTAINED SECONDARY AND PRIMARY (INCLUDING NURSERY) SCHOOLS IN ENGLAND AND WALES
TABLE I—PROJECTED SCHOOL POPULATION
Thousands
1974 Actual 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
A. CURRENT (1974) PROJECTIONS
(i) Primary (including under 5's) … 5,250 5,223 5,201 5,164 5,056 4,919 4,762 4,618 4,489 4,377 4,320 4,337 4,417
(ii) Secondary … 3,692 3,810 3,928 4,021 4,081 4,104 4,097 4,052 3,983 3,920 3,835 3,716 3,577
(iii) Total … 8,942 9,033 9,129 9,185 9,137 9,023 8,859 8,670 8,472 8,297 8,155 8,053 7,994
B. WHITE PAPER "EDUCATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR EXPANSION" (CMND. 5174) (1972) ESTIMATES
(i) Primary (including under 5's) … … 5,169 5,146 5,128 5,148 5,213 5,295 5,392 5,451 5,519 5,574 5,614 5,650
(ii) Secondary … … 3,893 4,025 4,127 4,192 4,218 4,209 4,170 4,114 4,058 4,032 4,037 4,069
(iii) Total … … 9,062 9,171 9,255 9,340 9,431 9,504 9,562 9,565 9,577 9,606 9,651 9,719
TABLE II—TEACHER DEMAND
Thousands
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
A. CURRENT (1974) PROJECTIONS
Full-Time Equivalent Qualified Teachers required:
(i) For Cmnd. 5174 Staffing Standards (a) … 467 458 449 441 434 429
(ii) For "Ninth Report" Staffing Standards (b) … 511 500 490 481 474 469
B. WHITE PAPER "EDUCATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR EXPANSION" (CMND. 5174) (1972) ESTIMATES
Full-Time Equivalent Qualified Teachers required:
(i) For Cmnd. 5174 Staffing Standards (a) … 513 512 512 512 514 517
(ii) For "Ninth Report" Staffing Standards (b) … 560 560 559 560 562 565

Notes:

(a) 10 per cent. more teachers than the number required to maintain the 1971 Staffing Standards.

(b) The pupil-teacher ratios specified in the Ninth Report of the former National Advisory Council on The Training and Supply of Teachers as being necessary to eliminate classes of over 30.

Both (a) and (b) include the additional teachers for nursery education and to cover the release of teachers for induction and in-service training as in Cmnd. 5174.