§ Lord Juddasked Her Majesty's Government:
What studies they are making of the effect of future climate change on migration; and what forecasts are now available on the basis of such studies. [HL3090]
§ Lord WhittyThe Government are supporting several ongoing studies that are making an initial assessment of the effects of climate change on the migration of plant and animal species and the implications of climate change for UK habitats, species and nature conservation policy. These studies will give a first view of some potential migration patterns as they report over the next twelve months.
The Government have also commissioned work on the global impacts of climate change by sectors, which has made a provisional assessment of the number of people likely to be affected—but has not assessed the likelihood of human migration. This research has been published and presented to the fourth and fifth Conferences of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The possibility of human migration was discussed in the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 1995. This report noted that sudden human migration may occur as a result of the projected climate changes and sea level rise, and that millions may be displaced by shoreline erosion, river and coastal flooding, or severe drought. Further assessment of this issue will be made in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, to be published in 2001. The UK is participating actively in the development of this report.