§ Dr. Lynne JonesTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what has been the total cost of the state pension in each of the last 20 years; and if she will estimate on future costs for each of the next 20 years assuming they continue to be uprated in line with prices as at present and inflation at 2.5 per cent. [37545]
386W
§ Mr. DenhamThe information is not available in the format requested. Such information as is available is set out in the tables.
Total cost of state pension in each of the last 20 years £billion Retirement pensions 1978–79 7.6 1979–80 8.9 1980–81 10.6 1981–82 12.2 1982–83 13.6 1983–84 14.7 1984–85 15.3 1985–86 16.6 1986–87 17.8 1987–88 18.7 1988–89 19.3 1989–90 20.7 1990–91 22.7 1991–92 25.6 1992–93 26.7 1993–94 28.2 1994–95 28.8 1995–96 30.0 1996–97 32.0 1997–98 33.5 1998–99 35.6 1. The figures have been taken from 1998 Social Security Departmental Report and earlier publications in the series.
2. Estimates are in £billion in cash prices.
3. This table contains the only short-term forecasts currently available. Detailed Government expenditure plans for future years (1999–2000 to 2001–2002) will be published after the completion of the Comprehensive Spending Review
Estiamted future costs £billion 2000–1 2010–11 2020–21 Retirement Pension expenditure in 1998–99 benefit rates 38.2 47.2 51.8 Retirement Pension expenditure(uprated at 2.5 per cent per annum) in cash 40.2 63.5 89.2 Notes:
1. The most recent long-term estimates are based on the Government Actuary's Department Quinquennial Review (HC 160) and Report on the Financial Provisions of the 1994 Pensions Bill (Cmnd.2714). Therefore they do not take account of subsequent changes or more recent information.
2. Within the relevant period the report gives estimates only for those years shown above.
3. The estimates are in £billion.
4. These estimates assume a 1.5 per cent. a year growth in real earnings. See Quinquennial Review for details of assumptions.
5. When the estimates are expressed in 1998–99 benefit rates, the rate of inflation is of no consequence.
§ Dr. Lynne JonesTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security what has been the number of people in receipt of the state pension in each of the last 20 years; and what numbers are predicted to qualify in each of the next 20 years. [37546]
§ Mr. DenhamInformation is not available in the format requested. Such information as is available is set out in the tables.
387WForecasts for each of the next 20 years are not available. A short-term forecast is published in the 1998–99 Departmental Report and long-term forecasts were published in 1994–95 by the Government Actuary's Department.
Historical numbers and 1998–99 forecast of number in receipt of any components of State Pension '000 Year Numbers November 1977 8,620 November 1978 8,776 November 1979 8,945 November 1980 9,118 November 1981 9,301 September 1982 9,395 September 1983 9,493 March 1984 9,532 September 1985 9,724 September 1986 9,859 September 1987 9,943 September 1988 9,998 March 1989 9,997 September 1990 10,173 September 1991 10,227 September 1992 10,271 September 1993 10,269 September 1994 10,297 September 1995 10,411 September 1996 10,564 September 1997 10,709 1998–99 10,661 1. Historical information is based on administrative data on the payment of pensions.
2. The 1998–99 forecast is taken from the "1998 Social Security Department Report" and is an average across the year. Short-term forecasts for 1999–2000 and 2000–01 will be published after the completion of the Government Comprehensive Spending Review.
3. Estimates are rounded to the nearest thousand.
Long-term forecasts of numbers in receipt of basic State Pension '000 Year Estimated numbers 2000–01 10,950 2010–11 12,360 2020–21 12,370 1. These estimates are taken from the Government Actuary's Department Quinquennial Review (HC 160) and Report on the Financial Provisions of the 1994 Pensions Bill (Cmnd.2714), which includes the effects of equalisation of State Pension Age. The former should be consulted for full details of underlying assumptions. Subsequent data have not been taken into account.
2. Within the relevant period the report gives estimates only for those years shown above.
3. Estimates are rounded to the nearest ten thousand.