§ Mr. Ron DaviesTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what information he has concerning the market value of beef cattle coming from farms where bovine spongiform encephalopathy has been confirmed.
§ Mr. HagueTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is his Department's latest forecast for the future spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy; and if he will make a statement on the level of reporting of BSE cases.
§ Mr. MacleanAt present, about 350 suspect cases of BSE are being reported each week. The future course of the disease cannot be predicted precisely, but an
354W assessment of the latest epidemiological evidence suggests that the number of cases will continue to rise until some time in 1992, after which, provided there is no direct cattle-to-cattle transmission, it will start to fall. The expected increase does not represent continued spread of the disease, but is a result of the exposure of cattle to the agent through the consumption of ruminant-based protein rations prior to the imposition of the feed ban in July 1988 and the long incubation period before clinical disease manifests itself.
Month ending: County 17 July 1990 17 August 1990 17 September 1990 17 October 1990 17 November 1990 Avon 26 23 19 24 18 Bedfordshire 0 3 6 5 3 Berkshire 7 3 5 7 2 Borders 0 2 2 2 2 Buckinghamshire 17 15 6 10 8 Cambridgeshire 6 3 3 5 2 Central 2 1 1 2 1 Cheshire 26 37 30 23 23 Cleveland 3 3 2 1 1 Clwyd 12 20 17 11 10 Cornwall 53 72 83 71 79 Cumbria 27 24 20 16 13 Derbyshire 16 32 14 23 16 Devon 182 82 96 130 101 Dorset 101 86 105 93 90 Dumfries 5 5 6 9 3 Durham 8 3 5 4 3 Dyfed 67 40 40 49 41 Essex 5 7 7 3 3 Fife 2 4 2 2 3 Mid-Glamorgan 3 3 3 5 3 South Glamorgan 1 5 4 1 4 West Glamorgan 1 0 0 2 0 Gloucestershire 39 38 17 9 18 Grampian 8 5 6 6 7 Gwent 4 6 4 6 17 Gwynedd 3 3 3 3 2 Hampshire 36 43 33 41 42 Herefordshire and Worcestershire 20 22 25 16 22 Hertfordshire 9 3 7 81 8 Highland 1 2 1 3 3 Humberside 7 10 4 6 5 Isle of Wight 11 7 16 12 8 Kent 19 18 35 22 11 Since BSE was made a notifiable disease in June 1988 the number of suspected cases arising each week has increased fairly steadily. Within this overall upward trend, a fairly consistent pattern of reporting has become apparent with numbers increasing in spring and autumn. Close surveillance at markets and abattoirs has not revealed any deliberate attempts to evade the legal requirement to report suspect cases of BSE.
§ Mr. Ron DaviesTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will list the number of confirmed cases of BSE by county in the months to(a) 17 July, (b) 17 August, (c) 17 September, (d) 17 October and (e) 17 November.
§ Mr. Maclean[holding answer 21 November 1990]: The number of cases confirmed on a monthly basis simply reflects the number of positive findings of BSE recorded as a result of laboratory investigation in the period concerned. As processing in the laboratory can take several weeks, these figures do not therefore accurately reflect developments in the number of new cases arising or reported.
The information for Great Britain is as follows: 355W
Month ending: County 17 July 1990 17 August 1990 17 September 1990 17 October 1990 17 November 1990 Lancashire 17 48 30 27 23 Leicestershire 20 42 15 43 15 Lincolnshire 4 8 11 4 13 London 0 0 2 0 1 Manchester 0 2 0 0 2 Merseyside 0 2 1 2 2 Norfolk 13 24 20 26 7 Northamptonshire 4 8 14 13 13 Northumberland 0 3 5 4 1 Nottinghamshire 9 15 3 11 4 Oxfordshire 7 16 17 14 20 Powys 15 8 11 3 8 Shropshire 28 15 30 16 28 Somerset 83 105 105 56 133 Staffordshire 39 15 21 30 113 Strathclyde 8 8 6 7 11 Suffolk 14 23 13 18 14 Surrey 8 8 10 14 7 East Sussex 14 10 13 14 21 West Sussex 27 25 26 40 24 Tayside 4 2 4 4 6 Tyne and Wear 0 0 0 1 0 West Midlands 0 0 1 0 1 Warwickshire 14 12 9 10 11 Wiltshire 64 86 57 66 78 North Yorkshire 52 39 51 41 37 South Yorkshire 6 6 5 5 1 West Yorkshire 12 9 3 3 4 Total 1,189 1,169 1,110 1,095 1,070