§ Mr. Corrieasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if the validation of the cases of leukaemia in 0 to 24-year-olds occurring in Scotland between 1968 and 1981 is now complete; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. RifkindThe validation of the Scottish figures given to the Black inquiry, appointed to investigate the possible raised incidence of cancer in west Cumbria, has now been completed. Validation was undertaken by teams of haematologists who reviewed the available notes, slides and other information on every known case of leukaemia in 0 to 24-year-olds in Scotland between 1968 and 1981. The results, which show virtually no change from the information given to the Black inquiry, are shown in the tables.
My principal concern now is to put these figures in the context of a study of leukaemia clusters throughout Scotland being undertaken by the information services division of the Common Services Agency. This study, which is I believe the first of its kind, will use small area data to identify clusters. It should allow us to establish where and when clusters of leukaemia occur. The results of this new study, which will be published, will also be submitted to the Committee on the Medical Aspects of Radiation in the Environment.
323W
Table II Post-Validation Registrations (and average annual registration rate per 100,000 population for Leukaemia for age group 0 to 24) Area and Period Lymphoid Myeloid Other (monocytic, other, and un-specified) Total 1968–74 West Coast 29 (1.7) 18 (1.1) 6 (0.4) 53 (3.1) West Inland* 39 (2.1) 8 (0.4) 4 (0.2) 51(2.8) Rest of Scotland 254 (1.9) 76 (0.6) 27 (0.2) 357 (2.7) All Scotland 283 (1.9) 94 (0.6) 33 (0.2) 410 (2.8) 1975–81 West Coast 36 (2.2) 16 (1.0) 1 (0.1) 53 (3.2) West Inland* 43 (2.4) 11 (0.6) 2 (0.1) 56 (3.1) Rest of Scotland 249 (2.1) 103 (0.9) 13 (0.1) 365 (3.1) All Scotland 285 (2.1) 119 (0.9) 14 (0.1) 418 (3.1) * Included in Rest of Scotland
Table III Observed (O) and Expected (E) registrations of Leukaemia for 0–24 age group population resident within 10 mile radius of Hunterston—
pre validation data
1968–74 O E P Myeloid 4 1.94 NS Lymphoid 4 5.29 NS All leukaemia 8 8.28 NS 1975–81 Myeloid 6 2.32 NS Lymphoid 11 6.23 NS All leukaemia 18 9.23 <0.05 NS = non-significant.
Table IV Observed (O) and Expected (E) registrations of Leukaemia for 0–24 age group resident within 10-mile radius of Hunterston validated data 1968–74 O E P Myeloid 2 1.94 NS Lymphoid 4 5.83 NS All leukaemia 6 8.44 NS 1975–81 Myeloid 6 2.56 NS Lymphoid 12 6.10 <0.05 All leukaemia 19 8.96 <0.05 NS = non-significant.