§ Mr. Ernie Rossasked the Secretary of Slate for Scotland what forecast his Department has made of the likely number of pre-school children in the foreseeable future.
§ Mr. John MacKayA projection of the population of Scotland for the period 1983 to 2023 has recently been prepared by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrar General. A summary of the results including the projected numbers of children aged nought to four years was published in the Registrar General for Scotland's "Vital Statistics Return for Weeks 37 to 40, 1984", a copy of which is in the Library. A brief summary of the assumptions underlying the projection is also shown.
§ Mr. Ernie Rossasked the Secretary of State for Scotland what is his estimate of the number of pre-school children in Dundee and Scotland in each of the next three years; and what are the current figures.
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§ Mr. John MacKayThe Registrar General makes estimates of population each year for the immediately preceding year. The current estimate is that for 1983. Projections of population over the succeeding years are made biennally by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrar General and are based on the most recent estimates available. The 1983 estimate and the latest projected population of children aged nought to four years in Scotland for the years to 1987 are shown in the table. A consistent projection for Dundee is not yet available. The previous projection for both Scotland and Dundee, based on the 1981 estimate, is also shown in the table. The 1983 based projection assumes a slower rise in fertility, following analysis of recent trends. Also the 1983 population base takes account of information from the 1981 Census of Population which was not available at the time of fixing the 1981 base and this obscures comparison between the two projections.
Projected population aged 0–4, Scotland, Dundee ('000) 1983 based 1981 based Scotland Dundee Scotland Dundee 1983 *328 *10.6 325 10.7 1984 327 na 328 10.8 1985 324 na 331 11.0 1986 322 na 335 11.0 1987 323 na 342 11.3 * Estimated population for 30 June 1983