Money Supply

HC Deb 18 March 1983 vol 39 cc281-3W

Mr. Austin Mitchell

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether he will bring up to date the reply dated 18 April 1982, Official Report, c. 8–9, concerning the increase in the real money supply together with his estimate of the effect which the changes since the first quarter of 1981 have had or will have on the rate of inflation.

Mr. Bruce-Gardyne

The information on the real money supply is as follows:

	Customs	Excise	VAT	Total posts
SEO	⅓	⅓	⅓	1
HEO	½	½	1	2
E0	½	½	1	2
CO	1	—	—	1
CA	⅓	⅓	⅓	1
Revenue Assistant	—	1	—	1
				8

Mr. McQuarrie

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many Customs and Excise officers are employed at Aberdeen; and what are their functions and their ranks or official grades.

Mr. Bruce-Gardyne

The number of permanent staff in post in Her Majesty's Customs and Excise at Aberdeen on 10 March 1983 and their principal functions are shown on the following schedule.

Percentage increases in the real money supply* (Not seasonally adjusted)
	Percentage
1973
1	1.1
2	3.5
3	3.1
4	3.5
1974
1	-4.3
2	-3.7
3	-3.4
4	0.2
1975
1	-7.1
2	-2.9
3	-1.4
4	-1.4
1976
1	-3.8
2	0.8
3	0.7
4	-1.5
1977
1	-6.0
2	1.3
3	0.8
4	3.3
1978
1	-0.3
2	1.4

	Percentage
3	0.7
4	2.8
1979
1	-4.3
2	0.1
3	-1.2
4	1.0
1980
1	-5.9
2	3.3
3	1.3
4	4.9
1981
1	-4.2
2	3.7
3	2.6
4	2.6
1982
1	-3.1
2	2.3
3	1.6
* Sterling M3 deflated by the implied deflator for total domestic expenditure (mid-1975=100).

The effects of monetary policy are distributed over a number of years and the lags involved vary from period to period. It is therefore not possible to make precise estimates of the impact of changes in the money supply in one period on the rate of inflation in a later period. The hon. Member will be aware, however, that a forecast of the retail prices index was given in the Financial Statement and Budget Report 1983–84. This forecast is consistent with Her Majesty's Government's perception of the impact of monetary policy on prices. The movement of £M3 and the retail prices index since 1981 can be seen by comparing charts 2.1 and 3.5 of the Financial Statement and Budget Report.