§ 33. Sir David Price
asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the claimed accuracy of the Treasury model of the economy; and what is the time lag between the events being measured and the certainty of the deduction from the measurement.
§ Mr. Brittan
There is no simple measure of the accuracy of the Treasury model, but estimates of average errors from past forecasting experience appear twice yearly alongside published forecasts. The most recent estimates were contained in the "Economic Progress Report Supplement", December 1981. The time lags 471W between measurement and central collection of, and any deduction from, the data vary greatly among economic statistics.