§ Mr. Watkinsonasked the Secretary of State for Energy what is the estimated number of barrels of oil which will be landed in Great Britain from the North Sea in 1976, 1977, 1978 and 1979.
§ Mr. John SmithThe 1975 Brown Book described the build up of production to 1980in a graph—p. 16 of the Brown Book. Production in 1976 is estimated in the range of 110 million-150 million barrels. Revised estimates of production in 1977, 1978 and 1979 will be published in the 1976 Brown Book, which will be presented to Parliament shortly.
§ Mr. Watkinsonasked the Secretary of State for Energy (1) what is the estimated value of the oil to be landed in the United Kingdom from the North Sea in 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1980.
(2) what the effect on the balance of payments will be of North Sea oil in 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1980;
§ Mr. John SmithUsing the estimated ranges of production indicated in the 1975 Brown Book—which will be replaced by revised estimates in the 1976 Brown Book to be published within a few weeks—and using today's oil prices and exchange rates, the estimated value of the oil to be landed in the United 577W Kingdom from the North Sea is as follows:
£ billion 1976 … … … about 900 1977 … … … about 2.100 1978 … … … 3.300–3.500 1979 … … … 4.400–4.900 1980 … … … 5.300–6.800 The same figures represent the benefit of North Sea Oil to the visible trade in crude oil and products. The overall impact on the balance of payments will also be determined by the possible increase in imports of goods and services associated with exploration, development and production in the North Sea, by outflows of interest, profits and dividends and by the net inflow of capital from overseas required to finance North Sea capital expenditures. But it is not possible to predict with any certainty the net impact of those effects on the balance of payments.