§ 3.11 p.m.
§ Lord Jenkins of Putney asked Her Majesty's Government:
§ What is their estimate of the total cost of the Trident nuclear submarine fleet, and how it is likely to be spread over the probable lifetime of the vessels.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe)My Lords, the current estimated cost of procuring the Trident system is £12.2 billion. This represents a real cost saving of £3.4 billion over the original 1982 estimate. It is too early in the programme accurately to assess Trident's running costs but our expectation is that they will average around £200 million per annum over the lifetime of the system; some £6 billion in all.
§ Lord Jenkins of PutneyMy Lords, is the noble Earl aware that I did not always catch when he was referring to millions or when he was referring to billions? However, I think I got it right. In any case we can read it in Hansard, can we not? Is the noble Earl aware, as I am sure he is, that the Washington Group, which is a group of high level, professional people in the military area, met recently in Washington in support of the Canberra recommendations for the elimination of nuclear weapons? The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Carver, was also present. Is the noble Earl aware that the group pointed particularly to the high cost of maintaining nuclear weapons and the lack of any necessity of maintaining nuclear weapons on alert? Can the noble Earl give us an assurance that none of our nuclear weapons is maintained on full alert?
Earl HoweMy Lords, I believe it puts this question into context if I tell the noble Lord, Lord Jenkins, that over its entire procurement period Trident will have absorbed fewer than 2.5 per cent. of the defence budget. I believe that is a modest percentage in relation to the value of the system. With regard to the Canberra Commission, it is perfectly correct that the report contains a good many ideas with which we agree; for example, the importance of non-proliferation measures in parallel with nuclear arms reductions. We also support some of its objectives; for example a comprehensive test ban, which we have already signed. However, nuclear disarmament cannot realistically be pursued independently of the broader security context. I have made that point on previous occasions.
§ Viscount MerseyMy Lords, will my noble friend confirm that in 1982 the then Secretary of State, Sir John Nott, forecast that Trident would cost £8 billion at 1980 prices? Will my noble friend reconfirm, as it were, that the final cost of Trident was less than the £8 billion forecast by Sir John Nott and therefore was really rather a good buy?
Earl HoweMy Lords, my noble friend is perfectly right. As I said in my original Answer, the 1183 procurement cost of Trident of £12.2 billion represents a real cost saving of £3.4 billion over the original 1982 estimate.
§ Lord Wallace of SaltaireMy Lords, will the Minister tell us whether the Franco-British defence dialogue, which we know has touched on nuclear matters, has identified significant savings over the term to be found by sharing patrols and perhaps reducing the number of boats on target? Has that in any sense been under discussion, and does the Minister think there are savings to be found through closer co-operation?
Earl HoweMy Lords, the short answer is no. So far our discussions with our French colleagues have not embraced those matters. However, we are in discussion with them over nuclear safety matters.
§ Lord MarlesfordMy Lords, does my noble friend think it worth pointing out once again to the noble Lord, Lord Jenkins, that the possession of nuclear weapons by the great powers has kept the peace among them for the past 50 years and we hope that it will continue to do so for the next 50 years?
Earl HoweMy Lords, my noble friend makes an extremely important point. Nuclear deterrence has played a major role in preventing conflict in Europe over the past half century and I believe it continues to play an essential role in maintaining stability in Europe in the post Cold War era.
§ Lord Jenkins of PutneyMy Lords, will the Minister answer the specific question and give the House an assurance that our nuclear Trident fleet is not kept on full alert?
Earl HoweMy Lords, the Trident vessel out on patrol is of course on alert in the sense that it is there to perform a task if it is needed. However, the missiles on board the vessel are not targeted in any way.
Lord Bruce of DoningtonMy Lords, bearing in mind the text of the excessive deficit protocol of the Maastricht Treaty, will the noble Earl give the House an estimate of the amount by which the country's public sector borrowing requirement will be increased during the period of payment, or indeed liability of this country for the construction and fitting of these vessels?
Earl HoweMy Lords, the period of construction and fitting goes well beyond the period of three years over which the Government plan their finances so I cannot, unfortunately, give the noble Lord the answer that he seeks.
§ Lord MonkswellMy Lords, the House will have been intrigued by the Minister's reference to the fact that when Trident is out on patrol the missiles are not targeted on anything. Can we therefore take it that 1184 should any problems emerge and the nuclear missiles need to be used they will just go up in the air and land anywhere?