Unemployment (Hansard, 14 December 1992)

§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Employment (Viscount Ullswater)
My Lords, on the consistent, seasonally-adjusted basis the numbers of claimant unemployed people in the United Kingdom were 780,700, or 3.0 per cent. of the workforce, in June 1975 and 2,867,600, or 10.1 per cent. of the workforce, in October 1992.

§ Lord Stoddart of Swindon
My Lords, does the Minister agree that those are amazing figures? Unemployment is now four times higher than it was at the time of the Referendum in June 1975. We were then told by the Government and by business that there would be mass unemployment if we did not agree to remain in the EC, but we now find that we have mass unemployment because we did agree. Is it not a fact that closer economic and monetary union, complete with the Maastricht Treaty, will mean even higher unemployment if this Government and this country are foolish enough to accede to that?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the noble Lord made one or two suppositions which he would have difficulty in proving. Unemployment is increasing in most EC countries; it is a problem in the EC as well as in the wider world. Furthermore, unemployment is increasing among the G7 nations. It is reported to be at record levels in France, where it is higher than in the United Kingdom, as it is in Spain, Ireland, Australia and Canada. In 1991 economic growth in the OECD countries as a whole was the slowest since 1982. That indicates the difficulties faced by most of the industrialised world.

§ Lord Dormand of Easington
My Lords, is it correct that there have been no fewer than 29 changes in assessing the number of unemployed? Perhaps the Minister will correct me if I am wrong. In those circumstances, what would be the present figure of unemployment if the statistical basis used in 1975 were used today?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the consistent, seasonally-adjusted unemployment series gives a comparable assessment of trends over time. That is the importance of that assessment. Adjustments have 386 been made, as is the case with any set of figures during a long period of time, and it is not possible to make the prediction for which the noble Lord asks.

§ Lord Dean of Beswick
My Lords, in a national sense are not the most damning figures those relating to loss of skilled jobs in the manufacturing sector, which has also lost hundreds of thousands of training jobs and apprenticeships within its factories? How does the Minister expect the country to take advantage of the green shoots, which we are constantly told are appearing but which no one can find? How do the Government expect us to take advantage of any upswing in our traditional industries when they have almost disappeared?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the long-term decline in manufacturing employment reflects a structural change in the economy. Lower employment in manufacturing has been mirrored and surpassed by increases in services employment. That has been a common trend in almost all the industrialised countries. Perhaps the noble Lord forgets that more than 600,000 jobs in manufacturing were lost during five years when his party was last in power.

§ Lord Ashley of Stoke
My Lords, is the Minister aware that the level of employment is becoming horrifying and destructive? Does he agree that it is wrong to blame unemployment on Europe because the blame lies entirely with the misguided and misconceived policies of the Government?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, no, I do not agree with the noble Lord at all. I fully recognise the difficulties and anxieties which unemployment brings to individuals and to their families. That is why the Government are so determined to provide the most effective help through the unemployment service and the TECs to assist those who find themselves unemployed. I do not believe that it is correct or right to blame this Government for the level of unemployment. It is not within their power to monitor and to keep world conditions under control.

§ Baroness Turner of Camden
My Lords, is the Minister aware that unemployment is still increasing and that organisations such as the Building Employers Confederation expect that worsening situation to continue, despite the Chancellor's Autumn Statement? If that is true in relation to the building industry, which could act as an engine for ending the recession, how are we to get out of the present situation?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, I believe that the Autumn Statement gives a great deal of assistance in showing how we should get ourselves out of the present situation. It is right to say that unemployment is a lagging indicator. The noble Baroness suggests that some jobs are yet to be lost in industry, and I agree with that. However, I believe that the economy is set fair for recovery.

Lord Wallace of Coslany
My Lords, is the noble Viscount aware that behind the bald exchange of figures, misery and degradation are suffered by 387 thousands of ordinary, decent people? That is the basis of unemployment—the personal misery and degradation involved.

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, yes, I agree with the noble Lord. That is why my right honourable friend the Secretary of State announced a new package of measures in the Autumn Statement which next year will help an extra half a million people in their search for work. The flows out of unemployment are at very high levels at present. Last month over 450,000 people left unemployment.

§ Lord Jay
My Lords, if government policies have nothing to do with unemployment, why did the Government claim credit when the numbers of unemployed were falling?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, I do not believe that to be a situation which the Government have under their control. Industry creates employment. A lack of confidence at present and in the future means the loss of jobs.

§ Lord Monkswell
My Lords, do the Government agree that the figures given by the noble Viscount reflect the period of Keynesian economic policy which was in place from the 1940s to the mid-1970s and the monetarist economic policies which have been in place since the mid-1970s to the present date? Are the Government happy with the current results of their monetarist economic policy, or are they prepared to change it?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the Government have set themselves a task to improve the economy and to reduce unemployment. That is what they are settled on. That policy has at least beaten inflation, which is now at its lowest level for some six years; namely, 3 per cent. Interest rates are now down to 7 per cent. A window of opportunity has been created by the devaluation of our currency. We must make certain that the manufacturing industry, which the noble Lord's party takes so much time in promoting, takes advantage of that. It must remain competitive and produce quality goods which people want at a price that they can afford.

§ The Countess of Mar
My Lords, does the noble Viscount accept that a sound manufacturing base is necessary in order to support the service industry? What is he doing to ensure that new manufacturing industries come to the fore and are encouraged?

§ Viscount Ullswater
My Lords, the manufacturing industry, about which we hear so much, produces the same percentage of GDP as it has done over the past 10 years. However, the growth of jobs has been in the service industry and that is where there will be a growth of jobs in the next decade.