HL Deb 06 March 1989 vol 504 cc1257-8

2.50 p.m.

Lord Underhill asked Her Majesty's Government:

Whether they will explain the discontinuation by the Department of Transport of the London Area Model.

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Transport (Lord Brabazon of Tara)

My Lords, the London Area Model was developed by the Transport and Road Research Laboratory to assist in the analysis of strategic policy options.

The department was concerned about a number of deficiencies in the model, in particular its failure to reproduce the effects of policies which have been pursued in recent years. An audit was commissioned from external consultants who reported in May last year. The department concluded that the model could not be relied upon to provide robust forecasts of the impact of future policies and withdrew the model from use.

Lord Underhill

My Lords, I thank the Minister for that detailed Answer. Is it not the case that the London Planning Advisory Committee decided, when it commissioned the TRRL report, that this was the best model available in view of the time factor? In a subsequent testing exercise, have not the consultants said that they saw no reason to doubt the original decision to use the TRRL model?

Is it not surprising that on two occasions the noble Lord's ministerial colleague, the Minister for Roads and Traffic, said on 15th and 27th February that the base scenarios did not represent current government policies? Does this suggest that what the Government really want is an inquiry to reach conclusions that fit the Government's own desires?

Lord Brabazon of Tara

My Lords, no, not at all. There is not much point in using a model if it does not reflect the policies which the Government are adopting, because the results of the work are likely to be of no great value. As I said in my original Answer, we commissioned an independent audit of the model which threw up a number of failures in it including, for instance, the prediction that subsidies would rise between 1982 and 1986 when, of course, they actually fell. So I am afraid that it is not a very good model on which to base future projections.

Lord Campbell of Alloway

My Lords, may I ask the Minister for clarification for those of us on these Benches? I am not alone in not having had the privilege of being introduced to the London Area Model. Exactly what is it all about?

Lord Brabazon of Tara

My Lords, it still exists. It is a not very large computer disk sitting on somebody's desk.

Lord Underhill

My Lords, the Minister said that the department had commissioned independent consultants to make a further test. Has that test been set against the original testing exercise of the consultants to the advisory committee? Did it discover just where the mistakes had occurred, if there were mistakes, bearing in mind that the TRRL is the Government's own research laboratory?

Lord Brabazon of Tara

My Lords, perhaps I should have said earlier that the audit to which I referred in my original Answer and which was produced for us by the external consultants is available in the Library. It is public knowledge and noble Lords may wish to consult it. No doubt the noble Lord will wish to read it to see what it said.