HL Deb 06 March 1989 vol 504 cc1256-7

2.45 p.m

Lord Kennetasked Her Majesty's Government:

Whether, in view of reports that the United States chiefs of staff have recently informed the United States Secretary of Defense that in the event of war the strategy of forward defence with conventional forces in Central Europe would have to be abandoned after seven days because of the lack of strategic lift and nuclear weapons would have to be used, they will state what action they are taking.

The Minister of State for Defence Procurement (Lord Trefgarne)

My Lords, reinforcement from North America plays an important part in NATO's strategy for deterrence, and the provision of adequate strategic lift is kept under regular review within the alliance.

Lord Kennet

My Lords, has a communication similar to that from the American chiefs of staff to the American Executive, as outlined in my Question, been made to the Government by the British chiefs of staff?

Lord Trefgarne

My Lords, I presume that the noble Lord is referring to a report about the representations that have been made to the former American Defense Secretary published in an American defence magazine. No such representations have been received by British Ministers from the British chiefs of staff.

Lord Paget of Northampton

My Lords, surely that is not surprising information. Did we have to wait for the American chiefs of staff to tell us that? Did not our chiefs of staff and those of NATO tell us over 30 years ago that the positions that we had taken up in Europe would be totally untenable for more than a week in the event of war? Have not we been sitting happily in that bluff position ever since?

Lord Trefgarne

My Lords, I do not believe that the noble Lord is correct in that assertion. First, the responsibility for the transport of reinforcements rests with each of the allies concerned, and thus responsibility for transport across the North Atlantic of American reinforcements rests with the United States. In any event, in recent years there has been a considerable increase in the stocks prepositioned in Europe and so the position is nothing like as grim as the noble Lord suggests.

Lord Molloy

My Lords, is it not possible that what is meant by Central Europe is both the Germanys? If there should be a Russian breakthrough from East Germany through West Germany towards France, which NATO forces could not hold, would a nuclear weapon be used irrespective of the fact that it might wipe out a few million German civilians as well?

Lord Trefgarne

My Lords, the whole basis of our defence policy is one of deterrence—to deter such aggression in the first place.

Lord Mulley

My Lords, will the Minister tell us who the United States Secretary of Defense is? I am sure that we should all be very interested.

Lord Trefgarne

My Lords, I was careful to refer to the former Defense Secretary, who was Mr. Frank Carlucci. I understand that the next Defense Secretary has not yet been confirmed.

Lord Graham of Edmonton

My Lords, in view of the fact that of late Mr. Gorbachev has been cutting arms unilaterally, is not the Government's best line to abandon modernising nuclear weapons and to seek greater parity with conventional forces in Europe?

Lord Trefgarne

My Lords, I should welcome an approach to greater parity of conventional forces in Europe. Taking tanks, for example, the present Soviet fleet, including those of its allies, is something like 55,000 tanks, while the Western fleet is something like 20,000; so we have a good way to go yet.

Lord Mayhew

My Lords, while everyone agrees that NATO needs a powerful strategic lift, will the Minister bear in mind that it is the habit of military men in all countries to make rather alarming statements for largely budgetary reasons?

Lord Trefgarne

My Lords, the noble Lord served with distinction in the Ministry of Defence some years ago. If that was his experience then, I have to tell him that things have not changed too much.

Lord Kennet

My Lords, will the Minister have a shot at answering the following question? I say "have a shot" because it is a complicated one. Will he tell the House, as nearly as he can within the limits of security, how long he thinks NATO forces on the land in Europe would be able to resist an all-out conventional attack from the other side, given the number of ships now available to the United States for the Atlantic lift, to Britain for the Channel lift, and to all the European countries for civilian supplies?

Lord Trefgarne

My Lords, I am afraid that would depend entirely on the scale of the attack.

Lord Kennet

My Lords, I said "all-out".