Unemployment: Statistics (Hansard, 1 November 1988)

§ The Minister of State for Defence Procurement (Lord Trefgarne)
My Lords, it is not possible to estimate the number of people who would now be registered as unemployed, using the procedures prevailing in 1979, because at that time people had to register at jobcentres or careers offices as well as unemployment benefit offices. However, the January 1979 figures estimated on today's basis was 1.171 million, which compares with 2.267 this September.

§ Lord Jay
My Lords, if the Government are unable to answer the Question in the simple form in which I asked it, are they qualified to reform our whole education system?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, when we came into office in 1979 unemployment was about to lift off like a rocket because many firms, shackled to the trade unions as they were, had far too many people on their books. If they were to become effective and competitive they needed to slim their workforce. That is what they have achieved, given the considerable improvement in productivity and production that we are now seeing.

§ Lord Hailsham of Saint Marylebone
My Lords, is it not obvious that the Question is, in principle, unanswerable since the statistical basis of 1979 involved procedures which are no longer pursued?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, my noble and learned friend is right, as he always is. However, I always try to be as helpful as possible in the answers that I give.

Lord Oram
My Lords, since 1979 have there not been some 25 changes in the way in which unemployment is calculated? Have not most of those changes had the effect of reducing the number of unemployed? Is it not important that we should be able to make a real assessment of employment policies, and to do that to have a frequent and perhaps continuous comparison similar to that asked about by my noble friend Lord Jay?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, no, I do not agree with the implications of the question asked by the noble Lord. There have not been 20-odd changes, as he suggested, but six or seven. The purpose of those 76 changes has been to make the figures reflect more accurately those who are unemployed and looking for work.

Lord Oram
My Lords, is the Minister aware that two years ago I asked his noble friend Lord Young about the changes, and he gave me a six-page reply of 18 changes that had been made at that time? Two years have passed since then.

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, that depends on what one calls changes.

§ Baroness Turner of Camden
My Lords, is the Minister satisfied that the calculation of those out of employment is accurate, since it is based merely on those who claim and who are entitled to receive unemployment benefit, especially in view of the fact that constant changes in entitlement have been made? Would it not be better to have a much more realistic assessment made of those who are available for work but cannot find it?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, it is not correct to say that the figures are confined to those who are drawing or who are entitled to draw benefit. The figures include people who have, for example, recently been in receipt of benefit and have perhaps run out of time for one reason or another. It is important that the figures show the numbers of people who are out of work, who are available for work and who are looking for work. We have made the changes to try to reflect those criteria.

§ Lord Mackie of Benshie
My Lords, does the Minister agree that the large number of people who become unemployed because unemployment lifted off like a rocket, as he said, after the Government came into power was a result of small and growing firms being faced with enormous interest charges; that recession hit those people who were part of the lifeblood of a growing and energetic industry; and that those who survived were mainly the larger firms which were not so competent?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I am afraid that the noble Lord has it back to front. There is now a great growth in the number of small businesses starting up and employing people—that is having a significant and welcome effect on the employment figures—whereas the unemployment problems that arose some years ago were, by and large, the result of larger firms shaking out surplus manpower.

§ Lord Boyd-Carpenter
My Lords, has my noble friend observed the desperate efforts being made by noble Lords opposite to dispute the fall in unemployment? Can he explain it?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, the welcome fact that unemployment has now fallen for the last 24 months consecutively, no less, is a result of the wise and sound policies of this Administration.

§ Lord Glenamara
My Lords, if the noble Lord can give the 1979 figures on today's basis, why cannot he give today's figures on the 1979 basis? Surely the same arithmetic is involved in reverse.

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, because it would mean guessing how many of the people in 1979 or, for that matter, in 1988, to be more accurate, would have been involved in procedures that were in place in 1979.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that one thing which has not gone up like a rocket is employment in manufacturing industry? That fell last August below 5 million for the first time in over a century. Does the noble Lord not regard that as significant in a manufacturing country which depends upon exports? What steps do the Government intend to take to put that right?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, as the noble Lord says, it is the case that there has been some decrease in the numbers involved in employment in manufacturing industry. The important point is the number of people who are in work of one kind or another. I am not sure which sector of the economy they work in is particularly relevant. The fact of the matter is that as regards the manufacturing economy, total production has increased recently and so has productivity.

§ Lord Taylor of Gryfe
My Lords, has the Minister any information on the geographical distribution of unemployment? Is the level of unemployment in the north west, north east and Scotland just as great as it was before the general decline in unemployment took place?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, that is not correct. Happily unemployment is declining in all the regions of the United Kingdom although, of course, the residual level of unemployment differs from place to place. I was imagining that the noble Lord, Lord Cledwyn, would ask me about the rate of unemployment in, for example, Wales. I am happy to say that the improvement in the unemployment position is as marked there as anywhere.

§ Lord Dormand of Easington
My Lords, as unemployment fell for the five consecutive months immediately prior to the election of the present Government, on what basis does the Minister say that unemployment was ready to take off when this Government came to power?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, as I have just said, when we came to power British industry found itself with far too many people for the scale of business in which it was involved. Furthermore, it was inhibited as to shaking out the excess, not only because of its shackling agreements with the trade unions but also because of the restrictive legislation which was then in force. Happily neither of those situations now prevails. Industry has been able to shake out its excess labour. Sadly, there has been a time when many more people than we should have wished have 78 been out of work. That position is now being rectified and British industry is reaping the benefit.

§ Lord Peston
My Lords, is the noble Lord aware that what has fallen is not unemployment but the Government's doctored unemployment figures? Is he also aware that if he were to compare his own figures for the growth in the labour force with figures for the growth in employment, there is ample evidence that it is most unlikely in recent times that unemployment has fallen? If anything, unemployment is probably starting to rise.

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, if I may say so to the noble Lord, that is a biased point of view which we have often heard from many so-called pressure groups from the other side of the political spectrum.

§ Lord Jay
My Lords, despite all these excuses, would it not be much better if the Government honestly published the real figures so that accurate comparisons could be made with the past?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I have done my best to give the noble Lord the figures that he requires. It is important to get the figures which accurately represent the position as I described it a moment or so ago.