Weather: Long-Range Forecasting (Hansard, 12 January 1988)

Lord Campbell of Croy
My Lords, I beg leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper.

§ The Minister of State for Defence Procurement (Lord Trefgarne)
My Lords, the Meteorological Office is involved in a variety of studies and research programmes with both national and multi-national agencies, but sadly the success of long-range forecasting remains at best modest. I regret that I cannot forecast much improvement in that situation.

Lord Campbell of Croy
My Lords, I thank my noble friend for his full and frank reply. However, with the latest advances in technology, including the proposed British laser mechanism to operate from a satellite, before long can we expect more reliable and accurate forecasts of gales and blizzards?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I think that I should counsel my noble friend to the effect that there is no magic solution just around the corner for this particular problem. The system to which he refers is one which will measure the wind speed and direction from the satellite. I have no doubt that this will be of great benefit to our forecasters, but even that system will be subject to some shortcomings: for example, it will not be able to measure wind speed through cloud cover.

§ Lord Irving of Dartford
My Lords, does the noble Lord agree that the recent storm and the resulting serious damage highlights the need for efficient weather forecasting services which are adequately funded? Is he aware of the European Parliament's call for co—operation in this field? Is he further aware 1073 that at the geographers' and geophysicists' conference in Vancouver it was forecast that with proper research, before too long it will be possible to forecast up to eight months fairly accurately? If the Government are not prepared to investigate these matters there can never be as efficient a service as would be possible if the proper support was given.

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, if I may say so, I think that the idea that we shall be able to forecast accurately eight months ahead is somewhat fanciful. As the noble Lord pointed out, there was some difficulty over the storm which struck the southern part of the United Kingdom towards the end of last year. That was a problem of hours, not days or months.

§ Lord Grimond
My Lords, does the Minister accept that many of us would agree with him that if we could be sure that a forecast was right eight hours ahead, we should be in a greatly improved situation, at least in the part of the world where I live, which admittedly is rather subject to storms? Can the Minister say whether the improvement in long-term forecasting will improve short-term forecasting, because that is what most people such as fishermen are interested in? I wholly agree with the Minister that the idea that one can have accurate forecasts with all the expertise at the Meteorological Office and people's prickling of thumbs and Norwegian fishermen who are always broadcasting their views is totally mistaken. The public should not be encouraged to think that any forecasts are more than an intelligent guess.

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I do not think that it is fair to say that short-term forecasting is an intelligent guess. Indeed, drawing on my own experience in the aviation world, the very short-term forecasting provided for that service, for example, is extremely good. I should like to pay tribute to the Meteorological Office in that way. However, the noble Lord is right that the longer-term forecasting is a much more difficult science and there is certainly no easy solution just around the corner.

§ Lord Hailsham of Saint Marylebone
My Lords, despite what might have been inferred from some of the supplementary questions, is it not a fact that the services provided by the Meteorological Office of this country are highly regarded throughout the world and even operate at a profit to Her Majesty's Government?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, I am afraid that they do not operate at a profit. The total cost of the Meteorological Office is some £80 million a year and it earns about £20 million in fees from various sources. However, my noble and learned friend is quite right; its services are highly valued around the world. For example, there has recently been a programme of research in connection with rainfall in central Africa to which the Meteorological Office has contributed most effectively and, I understand, to the considerable satisfaction of those who live in those parts.

§ Lord Cledwyn of Penrhos
My Lords, following the recent storm is it not the case that the Minister's right honourable friend commissioned two distinguished scientists to look into the meteorological services in this country? Will the Minister say how long this study will take and when he expects a report?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, the noble Lord is quite right. After the recent catastrophic storm my right honourable friend did ask the Meteorological Office itself to study what had gone wrong and at the same time asked two distinguished experts to look at the study which the Meteorological Office prepared. I understand that both those reports are likely to be with Ministers very shortly and certainly both will be published.

Lord Campbell of Croy
My Lords, will my noble friend arrange for the Meteorological Office to be put in touch with the sources to which the noble Lord, Lord Irving of Dartford, referred? Will he also perhaps arrange for them to be put in touch with those who arrange the cricket programme in the United Kingdom?

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, the Meteorological Office services are of course available to anybody who wants them. As for the conference to which I think the noble Lord, Lord Irving of Dartford, referred, I imagine that the Meteorological Office was represented at that conference. Perhaps I may inquire further into that.

§ Lord Irving of Dartford
My Lords, will the noble Lord accept that proper tribute has been paid to the effectiveness of short-range forecasting at the moment? Will he bear in mind that it is not many years ago since that looked like crystal-gazing too? Therefore the proper resources applied to the very people who have created an effective short-term service will eventually create a better long-term service, but they need the support and they need the resources.

§ Lord Trefgarne
My Lords, the noble Lord referred to resources. I have already mentioned in reply to my noble and learned friend the cost of the Meteorological Office, which is around £80 million a year, about £8 million of which is already deployed for research purposes.