§ 2.38 p.m.
§ LORD BELSTEADMy Lords, I beg leave to ask the second Question which stands in my name on the Order Paper.
§ [The Question was as follows:
§ To ask Her Majesty's Government what is the latest estimate of the expected increase in the numbers of maintained secondary school pupils between 1968 and 1978, and in which three years within this decade the greatest increases in these numbers may be expected.]
§ BARONESS PHILLIPSMy Lords, between January, 1968, and January, 1978, approximately 1¼ million. The greatest yearly increases during this period are expected to be 367,000 in 1973, 123,000 in 1974 and 132,000 in 1975.
§ LORD BELSTEADMy Lords, I thank the noble Baroness for those figures. Am I right in thinking that they are really incredible, showing nearly a 50 per cent. increase—three and a half times the rate of the previous decade? I should like to ask two other supplementary questions. First, do Her Majesty's Government know exactly in which areas it is likely that the sharpest increases will occur when the school-leaving age is raised? Secondly, do Her Majesty's Government envisage any necessity for expanding further education facilities to help schools to cope with the sharp increases in the three years concerned?
§ BARONESS PHILLIPSMy Lords, when the noble Lord refers to "area" I take it that he means area of age rather than the geographical area.
§ LORD BELSTEADThat is so, my Lords.
§ BARONESS PHILLIPSMy Lords, as the noble Lord will appreciate, the increase is due to three points: the raising of the school-leaving age; the increasing tendency for children to stay on at school voluntarily beyond the age of 16, and the larger secondary school age groups. So far as his other point is concerned, I think the noble Lord can assume that Her Majesty's Government are well aware of the factors, particularly as at the moment there is an inquiry going on into further education and the needs which we shall encounter.
§ LORD BELSTEADMy Lords, may I ask one further supplementary question? The noble Baroness has kindly given me the three years in which the sharpest increases will occur. One of those years is, of course, the year in which the school-leaving age goes up, but the other two are not. I must ask, therefore, whether the Government are confident that the necessary resources are available to cope with this incredible increase which includes the time when the school-leaving age is to rise?
§ BARONESS PHILLIPSMy Lords, I am sure that my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Education and Science is well aware of the position. He is spending a great deal of time and giving a great deal of attention to this area of expenditure. I appreciate that the figures involved are substantial, and I am sure the Government are well aware of the various problems that have been outlined.
§ LORD BELSTEADMy Lords, in thanking the noble Baroness I must ask her if she is aware that what is worrying people is not whether the right honourable gentleman is aware but whether he is confident?