§ LORD FARINGDON, who had given Notice that he would ask His Majesty's Government whether they can make a statement on the present and prospective food situation in India, and move for Papers, said: My Lords, as a matter of fact I also, of course, share my noble friend's respect for the debating versatility of the noble Earl. My real reason for hoping that these two questions could be taken separately was that I thought that would be for the convenience of your Lordships' House. These two questions are very different. Their treatment is very different, and they deal with very different facets of the Indian problem. Some of us, during the last few months, have been becoming increasingly uneasy about the food situation in India. My noble friend Lord Strabolgi mentioned the lack of news from India, and indeed it is difficult to make out exactly what is happening, what has happened and what provisions are being made. It is therefore with the object of obtaining information that I have put this Motion on the Paper. Our anxiety has recently been increased by the alleged report of Mr. Roosevelt's personal representative, Mr. Berry, in Delhi, to the 1109 President about the situation in India, and it has been further increased by the statements put out by the twenty-seven political leaders in India, of all shades of opinion and belonging to all Parties.
§ Finally, since this question has been on the Paper there has appeared in The Times newspaper an article which I cannot help thinking must have brought many of your Lordships who read it to share our anxieties. Although the newspaper expressed itself in terms of what I would describe as sober optimism, I cannot help feeling that any of your Lordships who read this article and studied the figures therein given, must have felt that though sobriety was clearly in place in dealing with such a subject there were, perhaps, somewhat inadequate grounds for the optimism. The Gregory Commission recommended—and on this again the figures are given by The Times—that during the next year there should be imported into India a million tons of grains for consumption, a and half a million tons to form a reserve. The Times report—and it is I believe confirmed from other sources, I do not think there is any question about the figures—points out that by September next something like 800,000 tons will have been imported, but nothing will have been imported towards forming the reserve of half a million tons.
§ I cannot help feeling that in these circumstances optimism, if not ill-placed, is at least hardly justified. We have already a deficit of 200,000 tons for consumption purposes, and no reserve. In addition, it is said that the deficit Provinces will require something like 1,800,000 tons, and that the surplus Provinces will produce, it is hoped, a surplus of something like 700,000 to 800,000 tons. In those circumstances it seems to me that there is already a considerable deficit, a deficit in the neighbourhood of at any rate 200,000 to 300,000 tons. Moreover, I suggest that it will be extremely difficult to ration supplies and to control prices without the control which would be available to the Government if they had a reserve of 500,000 tons.
§ I have outlined very briefly the grounds of the anxiety which has caused me to put upon the Paper the Motion which stands in my name. It is more in the nature of a question than a Motion, because it is designed to elicit information. 1110 A further source of anxiety has been the epidemic position in India. One cannot feel that the food situation, from which arises the gravity of the epidemic situation, is satisfactory when Dr. Roy, the head of the Bengal Medical Co-ordination Committee, reports that there are something like 20,000,000 people in Bengal and Bihar who are affected by epidemics. He reports that there is an outbreak of a particularly virulent type of smallpox, and that the cholera situation is really critical. It is reported that the cholera situation in Bihar is worse than it was in the gravest year hitherto recorded, 1920.
§ I do not expect the noble Earl to deal with the position of drugs and medical services, but the health situation is one which is produced by the famine and which also reacts upon it, because we cannot hope to obtain from a country in which the epidemic situation is so serious the produce of foodstuffs for which we might otherwise have hoped. I therefore trust that His Majesty's Government, even if they are not able to say anything today, will at any rate on some future occasion give us some assurance about the steps which they are taking both to promote the manufacture of drugs in India and to facilitate the export of drugs from this country.
§ If the anticipated surpluses are obtained from the Provinces in which a surplus is expected, and if additional sources of supply can be found abroad, as I am assured that they can, in Australia, the United States of America and Canada, then the critical problem will be that of transport, as I am sure the noble Earl will agree. The transport position is divided into an internal and an external problem. The internal problem has been accentuated and aggravated by the removal of railway trucks from India to the Middle East. Moreover, in Bengal in particular the situation has been made more difficult by the fact that, fearing a Japanese invasion, the boats of the Bengali fishermen and river-dwellers were confiscated, and I understand they have now rotted until many of them can no longer be used. Finally, owing to the difficulty in obtaining fodder the draft animals, which were the sole remaining method of transport in India, have been immensely reduced in number.
§ After the arrival of the present Viceroy in India, the whole-hearted and effective 1111 co-operation of the military was obtained, and one of the respects in which that cooperation proved invaluable was the provision of petrol transport. This transport is now, I understand, no longer available, and one wonders how, supposing the surpluses can be obtained and the imports can be made, they are to be transported inside India. I have outlined only very briefly the grounds for the anxiety that I feel, and that I know a great number of people in this country and on these Benches, and I am sure on the Government Benches, feel, about the present food situation in India. Since to obtain information was the reason for this Motion, I shall detain your Lordships no longer. I beg to move.
§ THE EARL OF MUNSTERMy Lords, nine months have elapsed since your Lordships last discussed the food situation prevailing in India, and much has occurred during the intervening period, through the initiative of His Majesty's Government and of the Government of India, to remove the rumour and the threat of another shortage. I think that the fear of another food shortage cannot be removed by flowery phrases, which in themselves would only encourage undue complacency; on the other hand there is no need for me to paint too dark a picture and to create despondency by telling a story of unmitigated gloom, of the continuation of speculation and hoarding and of the loss or lack of confidence. Indeed, there are quite a number of favourable features to which I shall refer in the course of my remarks, and I feel that by weighing the optimistic view with the pessimistic view we can at any rate say that there is reasonable justification for thinking that we are on the road to better days. The food problem of India, and in fact of every tropical country, depends, of course, upon rainfall, and if in any year the monsoon in India should fail, we are faced, as you know, with a difficult or perhaps dangerous or even extremely dangerous situation. If, however, the present monsoon proves favourable—and there is certainly some justification for believing that it may—then at any rate we should be able to resolve our difficulties and to meet our requirements for the current year.
The wheat crop in the North-West of India, which was particularly good— 1112 well above the average—last year, has suffered this year from a spell of bad weather before harvesting, which I understand takes place just before the monsoon is due. The present crop is about the same amount below the average as the 1943 crop was above the average. It follows, therefore, that a portion of the surplus which would otherwise have been available for distribution to deficit areas from the North-West wheat-growing areas in India will have to be found from elsewhere. Although this factor in itself should not be the cause of another food shortage, it must nevertheless be taken into account in examining the position as a whole, and it is for that reason that I mention it. Noble Lords will remember that the famine of last year occurred mainly in rice-growing areas, and it was caused by a variety of events, of which not the least were abnormal climatic conditions. But in so far as it was a matter of human control, every measure has been taken to ensure that there shall be no recurrence. We cannot of course deal with the elements, which are beyond our control.
I want in the course of my remarks, which I am afraid will be somewhat lengthy, to give the House an account of the rationing system which has been adopted in towns and cities throughout India, of the procurement plan, which naturally differs from Province to Province according to whether it is a surplus or deficit area, of the price control system in operation, and of the import programme for which shipping has been supplied by His Majesty's Government. Before doing that I want to make a few general remarks in order to give the House the fullest information which I have at my disposal. No one will desire to discuss again the causes which led to last year's famine, but certain lessons have been learnt from it, and they have stood us in useful stead.
It will be remembered that the particular area which was inflicted with such a grievous famine was limited in size and in population, and the most serious conditions which prevailed were confined to areas in the Province of Bengal. I think, therefore, your Lordships and the noble Lord who asked this question may be particularly interested to hear the recent news of the food position in that Province. I am glad to say that since the famine of last year came to an end con- 1113 ditions have immensely improved with the harvesting of a bumper rice crop, in point of fact the best crop that has ever been known. An undertaking has been given by the Government of India to supply from sources outside Bengal 640,000 tons of food grains in order to feed the city of Calcutta. That in itself will remove the burden from the Bengal market, which obviously must be suffering to some extent from the inevitable aftermath of last year's disaster, the lack of a normal carry-over and the shock to confidence. The difficulties which originally postponed introduction of rationing in the city of Calcutta have now been overcome, and I am told that the situation there is working smoothly and well.
My right honourable friend Mr. Casey, the new Governor of the Province, has put in hand a number of measures which are all directed to reorganizing the whole food position, and he has moreover stated that the food grains which have been procured under the scheme which is operating in that Province, about which I will say something later on, justified all his expectations and hopes that the total procurement will be adequate to meet all the essential needs of the deficit areas within his particular Province during the present year. There may be certain relatively small areas in which for one reason or another difficulties will perhaps be experienced, but everything is being done to anticipate and meet those difficulties before they arise. His plan has accordingly included the establishment of reserves of grain at points from which those areas liable to special distress can be reached in spite of transport difficulties, if they are then in existence. The small boats which were removed at the time of the threatened Japanese invasion of Bengal have been restored, and the task of rebuilding is being divided between the civil and military authorities. One of the complications which confront Mr. Casey is the presence within his Province of large forces who are aligned against the Japanese. My right honourable friend has also instituted a rural rationing scheme which has Province-wide application, and nearly 50 per cent. of the rural families have already received ration cards, but even when this scheme is fully working it will probably not have the exactitude which urban rationing in this country and in India would demand.
1114 The food committees which were set up in the Province some time ago have been completely reorganized, and are now functioning in every district throughout the whole Province. At the beginning of this month Mr. Casey made a broadcast speech and he stated that they were within reasonable sight of having procured the minimum total of rice to see the Province through until the next winter's crop in November is harvested. He also stated that this meant that Bengal was almost out of the wood so far as this year was concerned. The plans which my right honourable friend has made regarding the procurement of rice have not been drawn up for one year alone, but in point of fact on a basis of several years ahead. That is the most recent information which I have about the Province of Bengal, but I could not let the opportunity go by without paying some tribute to my right honourable friend who was appointed as Governor of that Province at a time when the food situation was most precarious, and who with superhuman effort has certainly steered the Province towards brighter days. At this point may I say in reply to the noble Lord opposite that I have not with me this afternoon the figures of vaccination and inoculation within the Province, but I think I could probably obtain them for him on some future occasion.
In this country we have, as we know, instituted a rationing system of the principal food commodities in order to ensure an equitable and fair distribution to everybody. No person is allowed any more than his neighbour, and the allocation of rationed foodstuffs has been drawn up on a highly scientific basis. Our task in this country, it is true, has not been easy, but it has been far simpler to ration everyone in these islands than it would have been to ration the whole community in the vast area of India. But even here it has involved, as we all know, an immense clerical staff, and comparable personnel was not easy to provide within the shores of India. Fortunately, however, that has not been necessary, for a very large proportion of the population are consumer-producers; that is to say, they hold a portion of the crops they grow for their own family consumption and dispose of the remainder to meet their immediate obligations and requirements. The efforts therefore of the Governments have been 1115 directed towards rationing in the cities and towns throughout India, and the progress which has been made during the last twelve months can really be described as astronomical. In the Province of Madras 77 out of the 84 towns and cities are now rationed, and in the whole of India 219 cities and towns with a population of something like 35,000,000 people, are rationed. It requires no explanation to indicate how important it is for Central and Provincial authorities to have definite knowledge of the quantity of foodstuffs which would be required from the limited marketable resources to feed the people living in these cities and towns. The Gregory Committee which was mentioned by the noble Lord recommended in their Report a minimum ration for each person of 16 ounces of food grains per day. Although that figure remains as a general target, to which all the rationing in the cities and towns is directed, I want to make it quite clear that at the present moment there is not an All-Indian ration scale in operation. I have been told that the quantities supplied to each ration-card holder may differ from town to town and from city to city.
Noble Lords will appreciate that, however good the system of rationing may be, the whole organization might be seriously impaired if the important factor of price control is not taken into account. The Government of India have therefore got to make quite sure that the prices charged for vital food supplies are not only fair and equitable, and give reasonable return to the producer, but that they are such that the community at large can afford to pay. Noble Lords will therefore see how vital it is to stimulate confidence amongst the people in the ability of the Government to maintain rigid control. If anything should occur either at home or in India through hasty or ill-considered remarks which might shake or lessen the prevailing spirit of confidence which has been built up so successfully by the present Viceroy, difficulties might emerge which might well have the very gravest consequences. Once the cultivator, who is the producer, begins to hoard his crops either as an insurance against bad times or in the hope of obtaining a higher price, an immediate local shortage begins, and then in course of time that is rapidly aggravated the whole way along 1116 the line. But if the spirit of confidence reigns, and the price control is firm and fair, then the tendency of the producer to hoard a surplus crop is considerably lessened and probably completely overcome. The Government of India's price control policy has therefore been directed to this end, and an All-Indian statutory maximum price is in force for wheat, barley, gram, and millets. Maximum prices are ruling at which the Government buy all wheat and millets offering. It has not yet been possible to establish an All-Indian rice control price, but I have been told that there are local controls of rice in various Provinces.
I pass from that to deal with the system of procurement which has been well thought out and well prepared, and which must of necesssity be very closely linked with the price control system which is in operation. This procurement policy, I am told, is an entirely new departure for India, and although, as I pointed out at the beginning of my remarks, it differs from Province to Province—I shall give indications of that in a few moments—the whole scheme is designed to supply the needs of the cities and other deficit areas as well as to give the Central Government stocks with which to control the market.
In Bengal the Government employ four trading firms who purchase on their behalf. They have evolved their own machinery. They buy in surplus areas at controlled prices, and the stocks which are thus purchased are held as Government reserves and drafted out to the deficit areas as and when required. In the Punjab there is also a Government scheme of purchase through agents. I have been told that this scheme is not working altogether satisfactorily, and an amendment is now contemplated to ensure closer control by the provincial authorities. In the Central Provinces an elaborate scheme is in operation, and it is worked by the whole of the revenue staff from the Commissioner down to the village Patwari, and the Government have, in point of fact, an absolute purchasing monopoly. At the same time there is in the Central Provinces a compulsory levy in force, graduated according to the size of the holding, and it has been found that as long as that levy is uniform and fair, and the producer receives cash promptly, no opposition at all is encountered.
1117 I give these instances of procurement without going into very great detail to show how different are the schemes in operation from Province to Province. Most of the Governments have found it desirable to employ the existing trade agencies, who perhaps alone possess the necessary knowledge, but of course they function on behalf of the Governments and under such conditions as to price which the Provincial Governments may find it desirable to impose. In normal times, free from the stress and strain of war, there should never be any real difficulty in importing into India sufficient quantities of wheat which, together with the amount secured inside India by any procurement policy, would place a substantial reserve in the hands of Government to enable them to control the market. It has been the object of His Majesty's Government to try and provide the maximum quantity of imports for current consumption, as recommended in the Gregory Report. Noble Lords know well enough the ever-increasing calls made upon our shipping last year and again this year, but in spite of all these demands—and it is obvious that we cannot allow our military operations to be imperilled—we have provided sufficient ships for the carrying to India of 800,000 tons of wheat from outside sources in the course of a period of twelve months ending in October this year. We have given an undertaking to the Government of India that we shall consider in August and again in November an allotment of further shipping for this purpose.
The noble Lord who moved this Motion and other noble Lords who are concerned with Indian affairs have, as the noble Lord mentioned, on occasion expressed anxiety about the future, and they will naturally wish to hear from me something of the action which the Government of India propose to take to ensure a steady and continuous all-round increase in the internal production of foodstuffs. We know from the census reports that the population of India is increasing at a very alarming rate, and the figure of five millions a year is no overestimate. At the same time the statistics of the recorded crop output show no comparable increase in food production. Although a short-term policy may assist in increasing the immediate quantity of edible foodstuffs, a long-term policy is what is really required, and will come into operation 1118 and full effect year by year. We cannot therefore, I suggest, really, on a short-term policy, cure all our existing troubles, but we can, and indeed we should, bend all our efforts to secure that the permanent policy is thought out and should start producing at once, continuing over future years, so as to meet the shortage of food due to the continual increase of the population, but before it arises.
Noble Lords will remember that, due to the circumstances of war and the loss of the Burma rice market, imports have been very heavily cut, and it is not possible to guarantee an immediate restoration when the war comes to an end. It is therefore all the more important that the scheme should be worked out now for the further expansion and development of agriculture and that a scheme should be put in hand at once. The Government of India have not been negligent in their duty, and as far back as 1942, under the noble Marquess, Lord Linlithgow, they instituted a "Grow more food" campaign which has resulted in an additional figure of 12,000,000 acres being brought into cultivation. But the scheme is not one merely of bringing land into production, it also includes measures for an increase of output on land already under cultivation. Some of the measures to increase production include the provision of improved seed, and in point of fact 80 per cent. of the whole of the wheat areas of the Punjab are now sown with improved seed. Other measures are the improvement of cattle breeding, both for the plough and for milking purposes, the construction of bunds against erosion, the provision of tube wells and tank irrigation work. All these have started and come into operation and effect. Moreover, at the present time there is a Mission out in India to advise the Government on the possibilities of an increase in the manufacture of chemical fertilizers in appropriate parts of the country and they have set themselves a target figure of 350,000 tons a year. It is further intended to promote by all possible measures better methods of husbandry, including proper crop rotations which we understand so well at home. In the Province of Bombay legislation has been enacted to effect control by Government upon crops grown within the provincial boundaries. It is intended that additional acreage of food crops should come into cultivation at the expense of unnecessary commercial crops.
1119 Finally, a plan has been envisaged which will certainly interest the noble Lord and others to double India's agricultural yield with an immediate object of increasing production by 5o per cent. over the next ten years and ultimately by 100 per cent. in fifteen years. The capital cost of this immense plan is estimated at 1,000 crores or £750,000,000 with a recurring annual expenditure of 20 crores or £15,000,000. The plan has been drawn up by a special Committee appointed by the Advisory Board of the Imperial Council for Agricultural Research and the members who drafted the plan include Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Commissioners of the Government of India, the Directors of Agriculture and of the Veterinary and Dairy Institutes, and three non-official experts. The plan aims at securing enough food of the right kind for every individual and improving the standard of living of the people. Production will be increased by bringing more land under cultivation, by preventing land from going out of cultivation, and by increasing the out-turn from land actually under cultivation.
I will not at this moment go into all the details which are enumerated in this tentative plan that is now before the Provincial Governments and will shortly be put before the Central Government. The Provincial Governments have been asked for criticisms and suggestions within the next three months, but I might just mention that the order of priority for the more important items of improvement is stated to be first, irrigation by the construction of tanks, wells and canals; secondly, manure and the manufacture of ammonium sulphate; thirdly, land improvement; fourthly, tillage; fifthly, the establishment of seed farms; and lastly the grading of cattle. It will be seen that some of the suggestions have already been put in hand by the Government of India under their "Grow more food" campaign.
I feel, my Lords, I have been very long in giving your Lordships an account of the present position in India, but I was anxious to give the House as full an appreciation as possible of the food situation throughout India, and I have tried to picture in a reasonable light, and with due regard to all the complexities—and indeed there are many complexities—the 1120 general position as we see it. The Government of India have not been behind the Bombay industrialists in thinking ahead and in planning an agricultural economic policy which year by year can bring into production more and more areas of cultivable waste. It is perhaps true that progress in the political field may tarry awhile, but if the standard of living and the general welfare of the Indian masses can be raised to higher levels then we shall, at any rate, have met one of the essential needs to political as well as industrial progress.
LORD FARINGDONMy Lords, I should like to thank the noble Earl enthusiastically for his very full reply. I am sure your Lordships will agree that it has not been one minute too long. Equally your Lordships will appreciate that with such a long statement it is a little difficult without reading it carefully to make any remarks. I still remain a little anxious about the immediate position. The noble Earl says it is impossible to control the elements. That I take it, really was the reason for the Gregory Committee's recommendation that there should be a reserve of grain. If you have a reserve of grain and you cannot control the elements, at least you can ignore them. I can only hope (and this emerges I think from the noble Earl's remarks) that the elements for this year may be merciful to us.
The noble Earl has made very clear the difficulties and the complexities of the position. I do not think anyone in your Lordships' House would for a minute underrate the difficulty of rationing a population so vast as that of India and I think, in so far as the Government are coping with this really monumental situation, that is all to the good. Clearly it is a difficult situation because obviously civil servants do not exist in India, as they do here, to undertake this kind of task. I was very glad to hear the noble Earl's assurance that His Majesty's Government hopes in August and November to be able to afford the Indian Government additional shipping. I most particularly welcome that statement because if my figures are correct the death-rate in Calcutta is still above the normal.
Finally, I would like if I may to congratulate the Government on their agricul- 1121 tural policy. The Indian problem is not merely one of to-day or of a famine last year or the possibility of a famine this year. The problem as the noble Lord outlined it is that of the appalling poverty of the Indian sub-continent. I feel myself that if the famine of last year, horrible, catastrophic as it was, has resulted in the production of a plan which will raise the productive power of India and the standard of living of her millions then it will perhaps have had at least one very beneficial result. On the plans of the Imperial Agricultural Research Council I do congratulate the Government and I wish it all success. I ask your Lordships' permission to withdraw my Motion.
§ VISCOUNT SAMUELMy Lords, before the Motion is withdrawn I should like to say a word to congratulate the noble Earl on the statement he has made. It is one of the most important statements on India which we have had in this House for many a long day. It has been fully recognized in many quarters that the Indian problem is not merely, and perhaps not primarily, a political problem, but an economic problem, which turns mainly on food production. The very rapid increase in population in recent years, which is still continuing, has added to the anxiety arising from the low standard of living of so many millions of the Indian population. If the programme outlined to-day is fully carried into effect it will have a vast and most beneficial effect on the population of India. I thought it right to say a word to draw the special attention of your Lordships to the great importance of the statement to which we have been privileged to listen.
§ Motion for Papers, by leave, withdrawn.