§ 16. Mr. Strawasked the Minister for Trade when, on present estimates, he expects the net contribution of oil to the balance of trade to begin to decline.
§ Mr. Peter ReesIt is not the practice to forecast at this level of detail.
§ Mr. StrawIs not the reality that, having squandered North Sea oil revenues on 3½ million unemployed, and having caused a collapse of British manufacturing industry twice as large as that which occurred during the great slump between 1929 and 1931, the benefits of North Sea oil will run out faster than was previously expected, particularly given the drop in the oil price? In those circumstances, the Government have no possibility whatever of securing a firm foundation for manufacturing to replace what we shall lose when the oil runs out.
§ Mr. ReesThe hon. Gentleman talks about reality, but he lives in a world of fantasy. I do not know why he should share his bad dreams with the House. Last year's manufacturing exports were up by 8 per cent. in value and by 1 per cent. in volume, at a time when world trade is contracting. That does not demonstrate that we live in an industrial wasteland.
§ Mr. SpeakerOrder. I propose to call the Front Bench and to allow one minute extra at 3.30 pm.
§ Mr. ArcherWill the hon. and learned Gentleman use this occasion to comment on reports that the Treasury is threatening the aid and trade provisions and the future of export credits, and that his Department is very sensibly resisting such a mindless and doctrinaire step? If those reports are accurate, will he permit me to wish him more power to his elbow?
§ Mr. ReesI am grateful for those extremely courteous observations by the right hon. and learned Gentleman. I will not confirm what he has to say. We attach considerable importance to the role of the export credits guarantee department and to the ATP programme.