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The effectiveness of community sentences compared to prison sentences has been measured by comparing the reoffending outcomes of offenders receiving prison sentences with those of similar offenders who received community sentences. The similarity of offenders is based on available offender demographics, criminal history, risk assessment and management data, and tax and benefit data. More details are provided in chapter 3 of the Ministry of Justice study \u2018The impact of short custodial sentences, community orders and suspended sentence orders on re-offending\u2019 published in 2015:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/399389/impact-of-short-custodial-sentences-on-reoffending.PDF

The study used propensity score matching (PSM) to create a counter-factual group, which enabled the outcomes of offenders receiving particular requirements to be compared to outcomes of similar (matched) offenders who did not receive them, and therefore the effect of the requirements to be estimated.

PSM aims to account for all sources of variation between the treatment and control group except for the intervention itself, meaning that any differences in their outcomes should be the result of the intervention.

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