§ Mr. OatenTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what assessment he has made, using the Home Office Trends in Crime model, of the impact on crime rates of(a) economic and (b) demographic changes in each year since 1995. [187234]
§ Ms BlearsThe Home Office Trends in Crime model is an empirical model which attempts to explain annual changes in recorded crime in England and Wales by reference to annual changes in a number of economic, demographic, and criminal justice variables. It has been developed by joint external and internal research effort with the purpose of providing the Home Office with a tool for identifying those determinants of crime that are both within and outside of its control.
The model is robust, but highly aggregated. As such it cannot account for all the factors that impact on crime rates. It has nonetheless demonstrated that economic and demographic factors have been important determinants of changes in crime over time.
The model has not been used to attribute annual changes in crime to each of the explanatory variables. However, the model predicts that, if other factors remain constant, a permanent 1 per cent. increase in the growth rate of consumption expenditure reduces the 1555W growth rate of crime by about 1.7 per cent. On a similar basis, an increase of 1 per cent. in the growth rate of the proportion of young males in the population would increase the growth rate of crime by about 0.5 per cent.