§ Mr. RendelTo ask the Secretary of State for Education and Skills pursuant to his answer of 5 February 2004 reference number 151860, what proportion of graduates the model assumed would have debts on graduation due to(a) maintenance loans, (b) fee loans and (c) fee and maintenance loans combined, broken down by bands of £1,000. [154379]
§ Alan Johnson[holding answer 10 February 2004]Of those students entering higher education after 2006, our modelling for the RIA assumed broadly that(a) 85 per cent. would leave HE with a debt based on maintenance loans, (b) 80 per cent. would leave with debt based on loans for fees, and (c) around 70 per cent. would leave with debt for both maintenance and fee loans combined.
The distribution of the level of debt—especially broken down into narrow ranges —is not an explicit output of the model. Moreover, it will not be static as it will depend on a number of factors and assumptions which change over time, such as: parental income, value of loans available; and the interaction of other model assumptions, including course length and whether a student completes their course.
We estimate, using the assumptions in the Regulatory Impact Assessment, and figures for the expected average debt for 2002–03, that the average debt of students starting in 2006 will be around £15,000.