§ Mr. LilleyTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he has made of the growth of the population up to 2031; what that estimate would be if there were no net immigration in future; and what estimate he has made of the proportion of expected population growth which is due to net immigration and dependants. [156194]
§ Ruth KellyThe Government Actuary's latest (2002–based) principal population projection was published in December 2003. The Government Actuary also published a range of variant projections based on alternative assumptions in January 2004. The variant projections included a 'Natural Change' projection which assumes zero net migration in future. Relevant results from the principal projection and the natural change variant projection are summarised in the following table.
Projected population change, United Kingdom 2002–31 Million Principal projection Natural change variant projection Population at mid-2002 59.2 59.2 Population change (2002–31) Natural change1 2.6 0.9 Net migration 3.8 — Other changes2 -0.8 — Total change 5.6 0.9 Population at mid-2031 64.8 60.1 1Births less deaths. 2The principal projection includes a downward adjustment for unattributable population change. Not migration and other changes are both assumed to be zero in the natural change variant projection.