§ Mr. WhittingdaleTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what assessment she has made of the effect on global food production of global warming. [177414]
§ Mr. MorleyThe Department funded an assessment of the impact of global warming on global food production using scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to characterise a range of possible global development pathways over the 21st century. A report was published in the journal "Global Environmental Change" in April 2004.
The work showed that the development scenario leading to the greatest increase in global temperature resulted in the greatest decreases both regionally and globally in crop yields. The world appears to be able to continue to feed itself under these scenarios during the rest of this century, but only through production in developed countries compensating for declines projected mainly in developing nations. Regional differences in crop production are likely to grow stronger over time, with substantial increases in prices and risk of hunger among the poorer nations.
There is considerable complexity in the world food supply system, and the impact of socio-economic developments could also be substantial, with the potential at the regional level to both increase or decrease yields.
Copies of the journal issue containing the report have been placed in both Libraries.