§ Mrs. SpelmanTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what proportion of the Government's target figure of carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 she estimates will be taken up by aviation emissions. [151195]
§ Mr. MorleyThe Government estimate that domestic and international aviation emissions could account for 20–25 per cent. of UK carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. This calculation assumes that the 60 per cent. goal specified in the Energy White Paper for the domestic economy is achieved. If international aviation were to be 429W included in the 60 per cent. goal emissions from other sectors would have to be around 15–20 per cent. below their Energy White Paper target to compensate.
This calculation is based on an assumption of three new runways in the south east and does not reflect the impact of any economic instruments. It further assumes that emissions from all international departures from the UK are allocated to the UK inventory, as there is as yet no international agreement on ways of allocating international aviation emissions.
The above figures do not include the radiative forcing effect which emissions from aviation have at altitude, which are 2–4 times greater than that from carbon dioxide alone.