HC Deb 27 April 2004 vol 420 cc941-2W
Mr. Bercow

To ask the Secretary of State for International Development what assessment he has made of the implications for global development assistance of current UN projections for world population in(a) 2100 and (b) 2150. [167206]

Mr. Gareth Thomas

Many assessments of world population only stretch as far as 2050, and DFID's development assistance policy is largely geared towards 2015, the target for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, the UN's Population Division has carried out a series of long-range population projections at regional level with a time horizon of 2150. These projections include assessments of possible future fertility, mortality and migration scenarios.

It is difficult to state the implications of these projections on global development assistance because the high, medium and low scenarios result in projections of very different sizes. According to the medium scenario, the world population will have stabilised at 9.7 billion by 2050. The low scenario indicates that population will drop to 3.2 billion by 2150 and the high scenario indicates a rise to 24.8 billion by the same year.

The substantial differences in these scenarios make it very difficult to base any firm development assistance plans on long-range population projections. In the meantime DFID will focus our efforts on achieving the MDGs by 2015 and will then continue to consider the scale of poverty and population projections before setting targets for future milestones.

Mr. Bercow

To ask the Secretary of State for International Development what assumptions about population inform his Department's country plan for Ethiopia. [167207]

Hilary Benn

DFID Ethiopia's country assistance plan is based on the Government of Ethiopia's Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Programme (SDPRP). On the basis of current population growth rates, Ethiopia's population will reach 73 million by 2005.

The SDPRP recognizes that population plays a decisive role in national development. Through the National Population Policy (1993), the Government seeks to maintain a balance between population size and the resource base through, in part, heightened availability and use of contraceptives. A key focus to achieve this is through increasing girls' access to education.

While DFID does not provide specific sector support to the population programme, in 2003–04 we provided £3 million to the education sector specifically and £30 million for the implementation of the SDPRP.