§ Mr. DenhamTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what estimate she has made of the impact of climate change on low lying coastal areas; and if she will make a statement. [134248]
§ Mr. MorleyThe UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was set up in April 1997 and is funded by Defra. In April 2002, a set of scenarios, referred to as the UKCIP02 scenarios, were published. These scenarios cover four potential future UK climates based on a range of emission scenarios: low, medium-low, medium-high and high.
Overall, the report concludes that is is likely that relative sea level will continue to rise around most of the UK's shoreline. The rate of increase will depend on the natural vertical land movements in each region and on 247W the emissions scenario. By the 2080s, the sea level may be between 26 cm and 86 cm above the current level in south-east England.
The report also concludes that extreme sea levels will be experienced more frequently. For some east coast locations, extreme sea levels could occur between 10 and 20 times more frequently by the 2080s than they do now, under the medium-high emissions scenario.
The Defra publication, "Flood and Coastal Defence Project Appraisal Guidance 3: Economic Appraisal", advises operating authorities to assume an increase in sea level of between 4 mm and 6 mm per year, where the higher level applies to the south and east of England. These allowances have been built into FM measures since the mid 1980s.