HC Deb 22 October 2003 vol 411 cc582-3W
Mr. Tynan

To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what level of installed electricity generation capacity above(a) average demand and (b) peak demand was available in 2002–03; and what level she expects will be (i) available and (ii) available but mothballed in (A) 2003–04, (B) 2004–05 and (C) 2005–06. [132434]

Mr. Timms

In the winter of 2002–03, installed generating capacity for England and Wales was 67.6 GW. Actual peak demand was 54.8 GW and adjusting this to average cold spell (ACS) weather conditions and adding back estimated voluntary demand reduction at peak, gives a figure of 55.1 GW. Peak demand under average winter weather is reckoned by National Grid Company (NGC) to be about 96 per cent. of peak demand under ACS conditions.

In the July 2003 Update to their Seven Year Statement, NGC published the following projections for ACS demand and installed capacity:

GW
ACS demand Installed capacity
2003–04 55.9 65.1
2004–05 56.8 66.9 to 67.2
2005–06 57.7 67.7 to 68.9

The range of projections shown for installed capacity reflects the extent to which plant not yet under construction comes forward. The projections for installed capacity do not allow for any plant closures not yet announced, for return of currently mothballed plant, or for new generating capacity yet to enter transmission contracts with NGC.

PowerGen announced on 19 August 2003 its intention to return a 650 MW unit at Grain to service for the coming winter. It also announced on 15 October 2003 that it had started work that could bring a further 650 MW unit at Grain back for this winter. On 16 October 2003, International Power announced its intention to return a 250 MW unit at Deeside to service from 20 October 2003. NGC will take these announcements into account for the October 2003 Update to the Seven Year Statement, due to be released later this month.

Further information on the prospects for gas and electricity security for the coming winter, and on the outturn for last winter, can be found in the "Winter Operations Report", issued by National Grid Transco (NGT) on 14 October 2003, a copy of which is in the Library of the House. That report estimated that there is some 4.2 GW of mothballed generating capacity capable of returning to service within 24 months or less, of which 0.8 GW could be returned in less than three months. However, the report does not take account of the announcements of 15 and 16 October 2003 referred to above.

All figures for installed capacity include the full capacity of the interconnectors with France and Scotland.

NGC consider ACS conditions as a level of demand that has a 50 per cent. probability of occurring within any winter. Since 1990, actual peak demand has never exceeded ACS corrected peak demand, although this may be due in part to voluntary demand reduction at peak periods.

The NGC Seven Year Statement, and updates to it, can be found at: www.nationalgrid.com/uk/library/documents/sys_03/default. asp

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