§ Mr. Gordon MarsdenTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport (1) what assessment his Department has made of the risk factors associated with light rail schemes(a) where there is a pre-existing light rail passenger base and (b) that rely on projections of passenger growth; and how this is reflected in his Department's costs and other assessments of such schemes; [131924]
(2) what risk assessment his Department has made of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway renewal proposals; [131925]
(3) what account his Department took of the (a) extent and (b) costs of Disability Discrimination Act 1995 compliance in 2004 in its assessment of the costs and value for money of the minimal option of works to keep the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway operational; [131927]
(4) whether his Department has included regeneration benefits from the upgrade of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway in its assessment of its value for money and cost-benefit ratios; [131928]
(5) what assessment his Department has made of the success of (a) light rail and (b) bus schemes in attracting users to public transport; [131963]
(6) what his Department's policy is on the upgrade of existing light rail networks; [131964]
(7) what research his Department has undertaken of the (a) benefits and (b) costs of (i) upgrading existing and (ii) building new light rail systems; [131965]
(8) what (a) assessment his Department has made of the cost-benefit ratios and (b) value for money of the options for the renewal of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway. [131966]
§ Mr. McNultyThe Department is nearing completion of its assessment of the proposals by Blackpool borough council and Lancashire county council to upgrade the Blackpool Tramway. In common with all transport projects considered by the Department, it is being assessed using the New Approach To Appraisal (NATA) framework, which pays attention both to those impacts which can readily be monetarised (such as time savings) and to others of policy significance (such as environmental impacts) which can only be considered qualitatively.
The NATA framework also requires the preparation of an Economic Impact Report on the possible regeneration impact of the scheme and a thorough quantified risk assessment, both of which the Council has provided. My right hon. Friend will take into account the findings of the appraisal in the light of all the other pressures on his programmes in deciding whether to fund the scheme.
479WLower-cost alternatives to the full scheme have also been appraised, taking account of the requirements of the Disability Discrimination Act.
A crucial, and difficult, part of the assessment of any light rail project is the forecasting of patronage. The uncertainties are always considerable, though greater in the case of proposals for an entirely new system than for an upgrading of a long-established line. Different scenarios, including optimistic and pessimistic, are examined to help capture the inherent uncertainty in forecasting future demand.
There has been no research on the relative costs and benefits of upgrading existing tram systems and of building new systems, since the circumstances and characteristics of individual schemes vary too greatly for such a comparison to be useful. For the same reason, the Department does not have any general policy as regards tram upgrades. Each proposed major local transport scheme is considered on its individual merits.
Evaluation Studies have been completed for new light rail systems, such as Croydon Supertram and Manchester Metrolink, which suggest that around 15 per cent. to 20 per cent. of passenger journeys on these systems would otherwise have taken place by car. and that generated trips can increase demand by up to 15 per cent. in the off-peak. However, there is also evidence that investment in buses can be successful in increasing public transport use. There is as yet only very limited experience in this country of guided bus schemes, which are the nearest bus-based equivalent to tram systems, and assessments of their relative attractiveness are therefore uncertain.