§ Mr. DenhamTo ask the Deputy Prime Minister what estimate he has made of the total area of the properties in low lying areas that will be affected by an increased risk of flooding from the consequences of climate change by 2050. [137389]
§ Keith HillThe Office of Science and Technology's Foresight project on flood and coastal defence is examining the factors that drive change in flood risk, their impacts and the effect of various responses under the range of foresight socio-economic futures scenarios. The Phase 2 report on risk drivers and their impacts is available in draft on the internet at www.foresight.gov.uk. It is currently subject to peer review.
The results so far suggest that, on the assumption that there is no change in current flood management policies, there will be a low to moderate increase in the probability of inland flooding in the north and west of England and a negligible or low change either way in central and south-eastern parts. There will be a high increase in coastal flood risk in the south-east (from Essex to the Solent), particularly in the Thames estuary with moderate increases in the north Norfolk and Humber estuary areas.
While there is a great deal of uncertainty, the analysis suggests that the number of people at high risk (i.e. within the Environment Agency's indicative flood plain) will increase from its present level of 1.56 million to a range of between 2.26 and 3.55 million by the 2080s, depending on which foresight socio-economic scenario is applied. Expected annual economic damage to residential and commercial property could increase in the same period from the current level of £1,000 million to between £1,600 million and £21,000 million, again depending on the foresight socio-economic scenario. The resulting areas of highest risk of damage, would appear to be the Thames valley and estuary, the Mersey-Humber corridor and areas around the Bristol Channel.
§ Mr. DenhamTo ask the Deputy Prime Minister what the responsibilities of local authorities are in relation to preparations for the consequences of climate change on coastal areas; and if he will make a statement. [137390]
§ Keith HillIn July 2003, the Local Government Association and UK Climate Impacts Programme published advice to local authorities on "Climate change and local communities—how prepared are you?" This is available in the Library of the House and on the internet at www.ukcip.org.uk. It advises on local authority activities affected by climate change and how it can be taken into account. There is potential for climate change to impact on a wide range of local authority responsibilities, the principal ones in coastal areas being in relation to coastal defence, shoreline management and land-use planning.
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Environment (Defra) Agency have jointly sponsored research on coastal evolution over the next 30–100 years, taking account of climate change scenarios. This provides the basis for consideration of climate change impacts in the second generation of 253W shoreline management plans being prepared by the coastal groups of local authorities and Environment Agency.
Planning policy guidance note 25 "Development and flood risk" issued by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister in 2001 already contains guidance on how climate change can be taken into account when considering both inland and coastal flood risk. This is based on the guidance on sea-level rise and likely increase in river flows in Defra's project appraisal guidance for flood and coastal defence, which was published in 1999 and confirmed this year in the light of the UKCIP 2002 climate- change scenarios. The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister will be publishing shortly further advice on the consideration of climate change in land-use planning.