§ Tom BrakeTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport what assessment he has made of the impact upon CO2 emissions in 2010 of his revised forecast that car fuel costs will drop by 30 per cent.over the present decade, rather than the 20 per cent. assumption in the original 10 year transport plan. [110074]
§ Mr. JamiesonIn our revised forecasts, fuel costs in 2010 (measured in pence per km driven) are forecast to be only 1 per cent lower than assumed for 2010 in the original 10 Year Plan. This is estimated to increase CO2 by approximately 0.1 MtC in 2010.
It should be noted that the forecast drop in car fuel costs between 2000 and 2010 of 30 per cent., compared with 20 per cent. forecast in the original 10 year Transport Plan has arisen from two main factors. The first is that the actual base year (2000) fuel price was higher than that originally estimated (although this has no direct impact on 2010 costs) and secondly, that the forecast for fuel duty, which takes into account changes since 2000, will be lower. The underlying forecast for car fuel efficiency improvements remains unchanged.