§ Mr. FlightTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what assumptions were made in forming the expectation of a modest decline in net worth, as set out in paragraph 2.56 of the pre-Budget Report 2002; [105326]
(2) what cautious assumptions are referred to in paragraph 2.61 of the pre-Budget Report 2002, on which projections of the cyclically-adjusted treaty deficit are based; [105327]
(3) what the assumptions are on which the projections (a) concerning output and (b) in Table B3 of the pre-Budget Report 2002 are based; and what assumptions were made about (i) the state of the world economy and (ii) oil prices in compiling the data in Table B3; [105330]
(4) what the assumptions are on which the projections concerning (a) fairness and prudence, (b) long-term sustainability, (c) economic impact, (d) financing and (e) European commitments in Table 2.6 of the pre-Budget Report 2002 are based; and what assumptions were made about (i) the state of the world economy and (ii) oil prices in compiling Table 2.6; [105323]
(5) what are the cautious assumptions referred to in paragraph 2.62 of the pre-Budget Report 2002, which were used to make public finance projections; [105328]
(6) what the assumptions are on which the projections of (a) surplus on current budget, (b) net borrowing, (c) cyclically adjusted surplus on current budget, (d) cyclically adjusted public sector net borrowing and (e) net debt in Table 2.3 of the pre-Budget Report 2000 are based; and what assumptions were made about (i) the state of the world economy and (ii) oil prices in compiling Table 2.3; [105316]
(7) what assumptions were made about (a) the state of the world economy, (b) oil prices and (c) the size of automatic stabilisers in compiling the projections of the changes to the current budget since Budget 2002, as set out in Table 2.4 of the pre-Budget Report 2002; [105317]
565W(8) what assumptions were made concerning (a) the state of the world economy, (b) export demand and (c) levels of foreign investment in the UK in the fiscal projections set out in the pre-Budget Report 2002. [105332]
§ Ruth KellyA full description of the assumptions on which the fiscal projections contained in the pre-Budget Report 2002 are based is given in paragraph B20, Table B3, and Box B1 of the same report. The key assumptions are audited by the National Audit Office (NAO) under the three year rolling review process to ensure they remain reasonable and cautious. Annex A of the pre-Budget Report 2002 presented a full discussion of economic developments and prospects, including the world economy, trade and the balance of payments, oil prices, and UK output growth.
Projections for the cyclically adjusted fiscal balances and automatic stabilizers are based on the average impact of changes in the output gap on the public finances over the previous cycles, as set out in 'Fiscal policy: public finances and the cycle', HM Treasury, March 1999. Updated coefficients for estimating cyclically-adjusted fiscal balances taking into account changes in the corporation tax regime were set out in paragraph C14 of Budget 2001.