§ Mr. LawsTo ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what his estimate is of the change in the volume of crime in(a) total and (b) by major category, on (i) a British Crime Survey basis and (ii) a police statistics basis, comparing (A) 1978–79 with 1996–97 and (B) 1996–97 with 2002–03; and if he will make a statement. [99810]
§ Mr. DenhamThe earliest estimates available for the British Crime Survey (BCS) are for the 1982 survey, which measured crime in 1981. Likewise, the closest BCS data to 1996–97 is from the 1998 BCS (crime in 1997). The latest available (provisional) data on trends in the numbers of incidents of crime were published in January 2003 in Home Office Statistical Bulletin 02/03, reporting on the results of BCS interviews that took place in the year ending September 2002.
Trends in the number of BCS incidents of crime for the major crime categories, 1981 to year ending September 2002 Interviews (in thousands) 1981 1997 Year ending September 2002 Burglary1 749 1,621 982 All vehicle thefts2 1,751 3,511 2,388 All BCS violence 2,160 3,664 2,712 All BCS crime 11,041 16,692 12,251 1Burglary includes burglary with entry and attempts. 2All vehicle thefts includes thefts of and from vehicles and associated attempts. The percentage changes in the number of incidents of crime, as recorded by the BCS from 1981 to 1997, are therefore:
Percentage increase Burglary 116 All vehicle thefts 101 All BCS violence 70 All BCS crime 51 Additionally, the percentage changes from crime in 1997 to the results of BCS interviews conducted in the year ending September 2002 are:
Percentage decrease Burglary 39 All vehicle thefts 32 All BCS violence 26 All BCS crime 27 Police-recorded crime statistics are available for the financial years 1978–79,1996–97 and the latest data are for the year ending September 2002. The offence coverage of the British Crime Survey and recorded crime differs. For example, the BCS excludes victimless crimes, crimes against those under the age of 16 and against those living in institutions, to name a selection. Home Office Statistical Bulletin 07/02 provides further details on the coverage and comparability of the two measures, and the need for the use of a comparable subset of offences for any comparison of the two.
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Trends in the number of recorded crimes of the major categories 1978–79 1996–97 October 2001 to September 2002 Burglary in a dwelling1 253,878 581,985 447,100 All vehicle thefts2 592,279 1,245,052 998,400 All violent crime 123,276 348,032 909,300 Total recorded crime 2,514,660 4,930,678 5,797,100 1Burglary here includes only burglary from a dwelling. 2All vehicle thefts includes thefts of and from vehicles and associated attempts. The percentage changes in the number of recorded crimes from 1978–79 to 1996–97 are therefore as follows.
Percentage increase Burglary in a dwelling 129 All vehicle thefts 110 All violent crime 182 Total recorded crime 96 The percentage changes from recorded crime in 1996–97 to the year ending September 2002 are:
Percentage change Burglary in a dwelling Decreased 23 All vehicle thefts Decreased 20 All violent crime Increased 43 Total recorded crime Increased 3 The percentage changes since 1996–97 have been adjusted for the effects of the revisions in April 1998 to the way recorded crimes are counted and classified. This has had a large impact on the changes in violent crime and total recorded crime, but a negligible impact on those for burglary and vehicle crime. Recorded crime figures have also been affected by the National Crime Recording Standard. The Standard, which was introduced) formally in all forces in April 2002 and informally in other forces prior to this date, has had the effect of increasing recorded crime statistics by at least 10 per cent. in the year ending September 2002. This means that:, but for the Standard, there would have been a fall in total recorded crime between 1996–97 and the 12 months to September 2002.