§ Norman BakerTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what further cuts beyond 60 per cent. the Government estimates will be necessary after 2050 to stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 550ppm. [117828]
§ Mr. MorleyAnalysis carried out both by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution and by the Department suggests that emission reductions of about 80 per cent. may be required by 2100 to allow stabilisation at 550ppm.
§ Norman BakerTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what assessment the Government have made of the environmental impacts if carbon dioxide concentrations are stabilised at 550ppm; and what the maximum safe limit is of concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. [117829]
§ Mr. MorleyThe Department has funded research to examine the potential effects of controlling greenhouse gas emissions at a level that would lead to carbon dioxide concentrations being stabilised at 550ppm, compared with taking no action to reduce emissions. There is a high degree of uncertainty, but the research estimates that controlling emissions in this way would, for example, reduce the additional number of people at risk of water stress from three to one billion by the 2080s (compared to the 1961–90 average). Similarly, the additional number at risk from flooding due to sea level rise would be reduced from 90 million to 20 million.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Third Assessment Report indicates that the impacts of climate change, and the ability to adapt to them, are somewhat uncertain and will vary between regions. The question of what is the maximum safe limit of carbon dioxide is therefore a complex one, and there is as yet no international consensus on the level at which greenhouse gas concentrations should be stabilised. However, in 1996 the EU recognised that, to avoid the serious risks posed by climate change, global average temperatures should not exceed 2"C above the pre-industrial level and that therefore concentration levels lower than 550ppm carbon dioxide should guide global mitigation efforts.
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§ Norman BakerTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide the Government estimate will result from using all global economically recoverable reserves of fossil fuels at current rates. [117831]
§ Mr. MorleyBurning all the economically recoverable reserves of fossil fuels would take the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to about 850 ppm over the next 250 years.
§ Norman BakerTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what proportion of the global economically recoverable reserves of fossil fuels will need to remain unused in order to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide at 550ppm by 2050. [117832]
§ Mr. MorleyOf the global economically recoverable reserves of fossil fuels, almost a half would have to remain unused to allow stabilisation of carbon dioxide at about 550 ppm by 2050.