§ Matthew TaylorTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer pursuant to the answer of 16 December 2002,Official Report, columns 587–88W, on cigarettes, what method of calculation was used; and if he will place the calculations in the Library. [90313]
747W
§ John HealeyThe allowance made in the pre-Budget report public finance forecast is based on assumptions about changes to cross-border shopping behaviour following the October launch of the next stage of the Government's long-term strategy to tackle tobacco smuggling.
The assumptions focus on effects that can be quantified with a degree of certainty. EU shoppers have always been allowed to bring back as much tobacco as they like, as long it is for their own use, and the revisions to the tobacco indicative levels as part of the October package do not affect that entitlement. Data from Customs and Excise's survey of cross-Channel travellers show that the majority of travellers made no purchases of cigarettes, and that, of those who did make purchases, two thirds purchased below the previous indicative level of 800 cigarettes, and that a further 15 per cent. purchased above. The recent change to the levels can be expected to have little effect on the shopping patterns of these travellers.
The assumptions for the public finance forecasts relate to the impact on behaviour of those remaining travellers purchasing at the previous indicative levels for tobacco. Those assumptions include:
that a small proportion of travellers may be expected to increase their purchases to the new level; andthat the average level of other purchases would increase to 1,600 cigarettes, a three-month supply for an average smoker, taking into account the affordability and profitability of trips.