§ Mr Heathcoat-AmoryTo ask the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs if he will identify the source of the GDP growth estimates given in his statement of 16 December,Official Report, columns 537–51, on the Copenhagen summit and enlargement of the EU. [89246]
§ Mr. MacShaneThe estimate of nearly £2 billion as the benefit to UK GDP from enlargement is taken from a study by Baldwin R E, J F Francois & Fortes R (1997) "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe", Economic Policy, no 24, April 1997. The study estimates have been updated to 1999 GDP figures and prices. The estimate of a 1.5 percentage point boost to the GDP of the acceding countries is taken from a study by the European Commission (June 2001) 'Economic Impact of Enlargement' available at http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/enlargementpapers_en.htm.