§ Norman BakerTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what historical data(a) her Department and (b) other publicly-funded bodies collate on snowfall; and what the predicted future annual number of days when there is snowfall are for (i) London and (ii) Edinburgh in (A) 2010, (B) 2020, (C) 2030 and (D) 2050. [144120]
§ Mr. Morley[holding answer 15 December 2003]: The Department does not collate historical data on snowfall. However, the Met Office, which is an agency of the Ministry of Defence, records daily snowfall frequency and amount at 80 stations in the UK. Most of these records go back to 1971.
In April 2002, the Department published new "Climate Change Scenarios for the UK". These scenarios include information on total winter snowfall amounts, but not number of snowfall days. The scenarios show that snowfall in the London and Edinburgh areas could be reduced by between 55 per cent. and 90 per cent. by the 2080s (compared to the 1961–1990 baseline), depending on the degree of future climate change. Scaling these figures back to the years in question gives 1031W the following estimates of the reduction in snowfall amount at both locations, depending on whether there is a low or high degree of climate change:
Percentage reduction 2010 17–30 2020 22–38 2030 27–47 2050 37–65 These figures represent general trends, not predictions of the amount of snowfall in specific years, which will be greatly influenced by natural year-to-year variability, particularly in the first few decades of the century. Further information is available in the full report in the Libraries of both Houses.
§ Norman BakerTo ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what recent assessment she has made of the predicted changes in the frequency of the number of days when there is snowfall in the United Kingdom under future scenarios of climate change; and what regional variations were identified in that assessment. [144121]
§ Mr. Morley[holding answer 15 December 2003]: In April 2002, the Department published new "Climate Change Scenarios for the UK". The scenarios do not contain an analysis of the changes in the number of snowfall days, but show that climate change will cause the amount of snowfall to decline significantly throughout the UK in the future. By the 2080s, large areas of the UK are likely to experience quite long sequences of snowless winters. Coastal areas and the English lowlands are likely to show the largest percentage reductions (up to 90 per cent. or more by the 2080s compared to 1961–1990 baseline), while the Scottish Highlands and parts of Northern Ireland may experience smaller percentage reductions (50 per cent. or less).
In addition, in July 2003 the Met Office published climate change scenarios for small islands within the British-Irish Council region. These include the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Western Isles, Orkney Islands, and Shetland Isles.
Both reports are in the Libraries of both Houses.