HC Deb 18 December 2003 vol 415 cc1019-20W
Mr. Paterson

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs whether compensation will be paid by her Department to farmers affected by the over-estimation of the wheat area for this year's harvest; and if she will issue a formal apology to farmers. [143587]

Mr. Bradshaw

I regret that the error was made. Defra figures are only one of a number of sources of information available to the market and individual buyers and sellers have to use their own commercial judgment. Although there was an initial increase of approximately £5 per tonne immediately following publication of corrected figures, this had reduced by about half within a few days with the price back on trend. This reflects the UK's position as a price taker rather than a price maker in an international commodity market. UK production is only about 13 per cent. of EU production, and EU production is just over 20 per cent. of world production. On average, however, wheat prices this year are now some £50 per tonne higher than at the same period last year. They have risen steadily throughout the marketing season in response to serious reductions in supply elsewhere in Europe as a result of heat and drought in the summer. This has also coincided with a tighter global market which has seen world wheat prices at their highest levels in recent years. There was no discernable effect on prices when the provisional agricultural census results were published in the middle of September.

Mr. Paterson

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what measures are being taken by the Department to ensure that the estimation of crop areas is accurate; and what assessment has been made of the causes of the error in estimation this year. [143588]

Mr. Bradshaw

The error in the estimation of crop areas this year was caused by unintentional double counting of holdings during the process of combining IACS crop areas with June Census returns. The computer program that extracts the necessary data from the IACS returns has now been rewritten to ensure that this error will not be repeated. In addition, the existing procedures for checking results will be strengthened and a risk assessment process will be instituted to ensure that potential problems are identified. Figures derived from surveys are always subject to some uncertainty, particularly when provisional results are issued, but every attempt is made to minimise this.

Mr. Paterson

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what measures are in place to ensure that errors in estimation of the wheat area harvest are detected. [143589]

Mr. Bradshaw

The error in the estimation of crop areas this year was caused by unintentional double counting of holdings during the process of combining IACS crop areas with June Census returns. The computer program that extracts the necessary data from the IACS returns has now been rewritten to ensure that this error will not be repeated. In addition, the existing procedures for checking results will be strengthened and a risk assessment process will be instituted to ensure that potential problems are identified. Figures derived from surveys are always subject to some uncertainty, particularly when provisional results are issued, but every attempt is made to minimise this.

Andrew George

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs what steps her Department takes to ensure the correct estimate of each year's wheat harvest is made. [143668]

Mr. Bradshaw

[holding answer 11 December 2003:] Estimating the size of the annual wheat harvest depends on information from a number of different sources gathered over time. A provisional estimate of planted area is normally published in September based on a combination of census and IACS data. Provisional yield information in the form of a production estimate is normally published in October. Updated figures are normally published in November and January respectively.

A number of checks are in place to verify the information coming in from farmers, the processes and the credibility of the aggregate results. Unfortunately, the internal error in the calculation of this year's planted area figures was only discovered by Defra statisticians after the area results had been published, and a corrected Statistical Notice was therefore published on 1 December.