§ Mr. Peter DuncanTo ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what the projected balance of trade in natural gas is for(a) this year and (b) each of the next five years. [41987]
§ Mr. WilsonThe latest official data available are for the year 2001. Provisional data published recently on the DTI Energy Statistics website show that the UK was a net exporter of gas to the order of 107,771 Gigawatt hours, equivalent to 8.7 per cent. of gross UK production of 1,233,754 Gigawatt hours.
Whether and to what extent there will be net exports of gas from the UK over the next five years will depend on the balance between UK supply and demand. Demand is subject to a number of factors, including weather conditions and the relative price of gas and other sources of energy, none of which is easy to forecast. Gas production from the UK continental shelf is currently projected to peak in the next few years, but it is not possible to predict precisely when UK supply will fall short of UK demand. However, on present evidence, on an annual basis the UK is likely to become a net importer of gas in or soon after 2005.