§ Mrs. MayTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport if he will make a statement on the methodology behind his Department's estimate, on page 20, paragraph 49 of the 10-year plan background analysis, that just under two thirds of the increased passenger rail demand due to fare reductions and service quality improvements will be from car users switching to rail; what percentage of the total estimated increase in passenger kilometres, resulting from the 10-year plan, this will represent; and what estimate has been made as to the number of car users switching to rail as a result of(a) economic growth and (c) car traffic growth. [71055]
§ Mr. Jamieson[holding answer 18 July 2002]: The estimate of the proportion of rail demand that would be a result of car users switching to rail came from evidence available at the time, collated by consultants to the Department, with the methodology reported in "Modelling using the National Road Traffic Forecasting framework for Tackling Congestion and Pollution and Transport 2010: The 10 Year Plan—Technical Report" (DETR, December 2002).
This proportion represents about 15 per cent points of the growth in passenger demand over 2000 levels (from the total 50 per cent increase), as the two thirds factor was only applicable for patronage growth resulting from plan policies.
No separate estimates were made of the impacts of economic growth and car traffic growth respectively. It is intended that the multi-modal National Transport Model we are developing will be able to address such questions in the future.