§ Mr. HowardTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer pursuant to paragraph A34 of the pre-Budget report November 2002 (Cm 5664), on what basis he is raising his estimate for the trend rate of productivity growth as set out in Table A3. [85536]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December 2002]: As paragraph A34 of the pre-Budget report November 2002 (Cm 5664) sets out,
The corollary of Census 2001 related downward revisions to employment and hours in recent years has been somewhat stronger productivity growth than previous estimates suggested.A full explanation of how this affects estimates of the trend rate of productivity growth is set out in paragraphs A36 to A42 and Table A3 of the pre-Budget report.
§ Mr. HowardTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer whether his revised estimates for the trend rate of productivity growth are dependent upon the potential increases in the underlying productivity growth rate, specified in paragraph A35 of the pre-Budget report November 2002 (Cm 5664), being realised. [85537]
§ Ruth Kelly[holding answer 5 December 2002]: No. In projecting productivity growth the Government do not score any potential gains from government policies whose impact is yet to materialise. Rather the approach is to estimate underlying productivity growth between past on-trend points for the economy and to use this as the trend rate for projecting forward.